Medvedev vs Alcaraz Odds, Medvedev – Alcaraz Picks
| Medvedev Odds | +270 |
| Alcaraz Odds | -350 |
| Over/Under | 39.5 (-115 / -110) |
| Date | Friday, 7/12 |
| Time | 8:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN |
| Odds as of Tuesday afternoon via DraftKings | |
Carlos Alcaraz has been less than his best over the past month, but it hasn't seemed to matter. He managed to capture the crown at this year's French Open and now finds himself just two wins away from a second consecutive Grand Slam and a successful defense of his first Wimbledon title.
In his way, stands Daniil Medvedev, who was able to solve the Spaniard the last time they met at a Grand Slam. He advanced past Alcaraz into the final of last year's US Open only to fall twice to him in the months following, creating plenty of mystery about this match.
Does Medvedev have what it takes to pull off an upset? Let's get further into the Wimbledon semifinal below.
Here is my Medvedev vs Alcaraz preview along with my Medvedev – Alcaraz pick.
Daniil Medvedev
It's extremely hard to build form and gain experience on grass. There are only a couple of weeks leading into Wimbledon, sometimes three. If you fail to advance all the way through to the weekend, you're short-changed on matches.
That's been the struggle for Medvedev over the years. The Russian finally looked to be putting it all together on the grass in 2021 prior to missing Wimbledon due to Russian restrictions, and in the years since he's suffered a handful of unfortunate upsets which have kept him from maximizing his grass seasons with more matches.
Theoretically, Medvedev is exactly the type of player you'd want to build for these courts. He stands tall and delivers a massive serve, but he can couple that with very unique and other-worldly defense to extend rallies on the fastest surface in tennis. He doesn't offer quite as much at the net as you'd like, but his play there has improved significantly over the past three or seasons, and the defense and serve more than does enough to help him. Mix in that he hits his groundstrokes with little spin and you've got a fully-formed grass player.
He's certainly looking like one of those here at Wimbledon, shrugging off a defeat against Zizhen Zhang in the lead-up to Wimbledon to come through two formidable opponents in Jannik Sinner and Jan-Lennard Struff to reach the semis. Best of all, he's managed to avoid the fatigue issues he faced in Australia thanks to a couple of rather quick matches and a win which ended after just eight games thanks to injury.
Carlos Alcaraz
The fact that Alcaraz hasn't been playing at his top level is a rather hard sell given he won the French Open a month ago and has taken out a few talented players en route to the semifinals here in Tommy Paul, Ugo Humbert and Frances Tiafoe.
It's definitely the case, however, if you watch closely. Alcaraz has been practicing questionable shot selection and giving away points he normally wouldn't dating back to a shaky win over Sinner in the French Open quarters. Respected minds around the game said it was the worst they'd seen him play in months, maybe longer, and he would eventually fall behind two sets to one in the final before Alexander Zverev crumbled under pressure.
Here at Wimbledon, he's hardly had a convincing win. He struggled with two inferior opponents through two rounds before going five sets with Tiafoe, four with Humbert and dropping the first set to Paul. The American seemed to have nothing left in the tank after losing a close second set, or else we may be looking at a player who's in even more trouble here.
The Spaniard did fall in just the second round of Queen's Club in the lead-up to Wimbledon and at last year's championships looked like a far greater weapon on this surface when he eventually captured the title.
Medvedev – Alcaraz Pick
These two have now met six times in their careers, with Alcaraz taking home four of those matches and winning five of the last six. It's hard to read into Medvedev's straight-sets win at Wimbledon three years ago given Alcaraz wasn't yet the elite player we've come to know and love, but I think it's equally as hard to read into Alcaraz's two wins at Indian Wells given the adverse court conditions for Medvedev — and the ATP Finals for that matter, when variance is abound.
The Russian did fall to Alcaraz at Wimbledon last year, but he didn't look nearly as good as did this year, almost fumbling away his quarterfinal match to Christopher Eubanks. He looks to finally be translating his top-five hardcourt level to grass, and I don't think we can overlook him here.
Medvedev knows what's coming, most importantly. Alcaraz serve-and-volleyed him to death at the US Open, and while he did win a considerable number of points that play was ultimately broken down on big points and Medvedev would go on to win in four.
With the way Alcaraz has struggled a bit to serve, I don't think the serve-and-volley will be as effective here. I'm also worried for the World No. 3 against the defenses of Medvedev given his unusual number of unforced errors.
We should be in for a highly-entertaining clash, and Medvedev's got every chance to win. I like this margins to stay razor thin.
