The fourth day of the French Open brings us two tasty second-round matchups with plenty of betting value on the underdogs.
Let's get into how to bet Corentin Moutet vs Andrey Rublev and Lucas Pouille vs Cam Norrie at day 4 at Roland Garros.
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French Open Odds & Picks
Corentin Moutet (+750) vs Andrey Rublev (-1400)
8:30 a.m. ET
There were a lot of tennis matches on Monday, so I'll forgive oddsmakers for not watching a second of Corentin Moutet versus Arthur Cazaux. It's understandable, but it's also blatantly obvious given these prices.
Moutet has reached No. 51 in the world and has beaten some legitimate ATP talents in his roughly nine years on tour. Still just 24, he's got plenty of time to rack up more monumental wins and would be safe bet to do so on clay. The Frenchman has exquisite feel for the ball and has an imagination few have which helps him finish off long rallies and stay in points. This was on full display against the rising Frenchman Cazaux, who played an excellent match in what was ultimately a four-set defeat.
We haven't seen a lot of Moutet this year due to injury, but I thought he was beginning to look like himself again in the lead up to Roland Garros. His record wouldn't have indicated that, but he fell to some red-hot players in very close battles which seems to have him in form for this tournament.
I will just say this: Moutet is always a threat when he's on the court – particularly in front of his home fans in France. The last time we saw him in 2022 he went to the fourth round of the Paris Masters, defeating Ugo Humbert, Borna Coric and Cam Norrie before losing a tight one to Stefanos Tsitsipas. He's also a dangerous player at Grand Slams, as evidenced by his run to the fourth round of the US Open where he took a set off of eventual finalist Casper Ruud.
With all that said, yes — Moutet can win a set here. Andrey Rublev has done a lot of winning on clay throughout his career, but it's very clear that hard courts are his best surface given his skillset. Roland Garros has also seemed to be a bit of a house of horrors for Rublev in the past, considering he's lost in the first round twice.
Rublev wasn't all that impressive in a four-set win over Djere, and I've got him on upset alert against a very exciting Frenchman.
Pick: Moutet +2.5 sets (+135 via DraftKings)
Lucas Pouille (+285) vs. Cameron Norrie (-370)
10:00 a.m. ET
The comeback story of Lucas Pouille is a great one, though all signs would point to it ending here against World No. 13 Cam Norrie. That doesn't mean Pouille is going to go down without a fight.
The Frenchman has reached the top 10 before, but injuries have since derailed what looked to once be a very promising career. Still 29, Pouille has a lot of good tennis left to play in his life and seems to be playing it right now after a confident run through qualifying and a clean three-set win in the first round over Jurij Rodionov.
Cam Norrie has done a lot of winning this year on the clay, but it's rarely come easy. After looking like one of the most consistent players in the world a year ago, the Brit's level has just tapered off a bit in 2023 and he's had some very close encounters and some bad losses this clay season.
This crowd should be a huge factor, and it gives me big time Davis Cup vibes. Norrie went to Colombia earlier this year to face a player outside the world's top 200 in Nicolas Mejia, only to make a meal of that match and escape in two incredibly narrow sets. I think he will struggle out there with the atmosphere, and I think Pouille's two-hander will do some serious damage and prevent Norrie from utilizing the topspin forehand which he needs to be an effective clay-courter.
The most likely outcome here is Pouille starting hot and fading physically, so with that I think betting him to take a set here is the right move. You might also take the over, but I'll grab the plus money on this.
Pick: Pouille +2.5 sets (+115 via DraftKings)
