We've reached the second round of the French Open, and the profitable spots have only just begun to hit the board. I'm eyeing a favorite who's once again been disrespected by oddsmakers and a red-hot Frenchman at a cheap price.
Let's get into how to bet Sebastian Ofner vs Sebastian Korda and Lorenzo Sonego vs Ugo Humbert on day 4 at Roland Garros.
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French Open Odds & Picks
Sebastian Ofner (+140) vs Sebastian Korda (-170)
5 a.m. ET
I feel like that one SpongeBob character right now. How many times do we have to teach you this lesson, old man?
How many times do I need to say Korda is playing some excellent tennis before the market begins to reflect his current form? He looked to be near his sharpest in a tight loss to Roman Safiullin in the lead-up to Roland Garros, and he looked exceptional in a straight-sets win over Mackenzie McDonald.
Korda's forehand was finding its range and the American landed a whopping 68% of his first serves in. He looked calm and composed, which is how he's beaten some of the best players in the world, and his ball-striking was clean.
That's all I need to see before firing up the Korda train once again here. Ofner has done a lot of winning at the lower levels of tennis this year, which is good when you need to build confidence but it does little for you when you're gearing up to step to a top-30 talent in the world. Ofner's run through qualifying didn't see him face anyone ranked better than 134 in the world and he's yet to beat a top 100 player this year. Heck, he's only faced three by my count.
Korda is a special player who's really starting to look like he's back to playing his best tennis again. This is a silly line.
Pick: Korda -2.5 games (-120 via DraftKings)
Lorenzo Sonego (+105) vs Ugo Humbert (-125)
6:30 a.m. ET
A year ago, I'd have called you crazy for even taking 5.5 games with Humbert on a clay court. Now? I think it's fair to say Humbert's figured out the surface.
The young Frenchman is enjoying a 13-4 clay court season which has taken him through the lower levels of tennis as well as the main draws. He's won two ATP Challenger tournaments this month, and unlike Ofner these were of the highest quality.
Humbert's latest win in Bordeaux saw him dispatch of Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Richard Gasquet, Stan Wawrinka and Arthur Fils, all of whom were automatic qualifiers into the French Open. His other title saw him take out the dangerous Laslo Djere in the final.
He is a player who's really only been held back by his own confidence and self belief. Humbert has an excellent serve and the imagination to pull off some special shots, and it's all clicking for him right now.
Humbert did lose to Sonego earlier this spring in Monte Carlo, but that match went three sets and finished 7-5 in the decider. He's only grown on the surface since then with 11 wins in his last 12 matches, so I have confidence he can build on the very tight loss and pick up a win here in front what's sure to be a raucous home crowd.
Sonego is the player with the better pedigree for the surface, but he's just 5-4 on clay this season in what's been a very down year for him. Humbert should have all the belief in the world he can win given how close their match this year was and considering he took down Sonego in straight sets in their other meeting.
Pick: Humbert ML (-125 via DraftKings)
