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Denis Shapovalov vs. Holger Rune Odds
| Shapovalov Odds | -130 |
| Rune Odds | +105 |
| Total | 38.5 (-115/-105) |
| Time | 5 a.m. ET |
| Odds via DraftKings. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here. | |
Denis Shapovalov has been able to maintain a spot in the top 15 this season without much consistency.
Sitting at 16-10 on the season, oddsmakers see a difficult task on his hands in the first round at Roland Garros against the up-and-coming Holger Rune.
Should you believe them? Let's get into this one.
Shapovalov an Underrated Clay-Courter
As noted above, Shapovalov's record isn't very becoming of a player ranked No. 15 in the world.
With just 16 wins in 26 matches, he's fallen to the likes of Jiri Lehecka and Jiri Veseley in disappointing performances. Shapovalov has garnered the reputation of a player who is a nightmare to bet on (or against) over the last few years, producing a true top-five level in some matches and a very, very poor one in other matches.
Shapovalov is fresh off a loss to Ilya Ivashka in a tight match last week in Geneva which has probably contributed a bit to this line.
I'd warn folks reading into that match that any tournament taking place the week before a Grand Slam is seldom one to take seriously considering many players are neglecting to dig deep into their energy reserves to win matches.
Top seeds are routinely dispatched in the first or second round in these events.
Prior to that loss, the Canadian had an impressive run in Rome — a Masters 1000, which is a very high-stakes tournament. There, he took out Rafael Nadal in the third round in a match wrapped up in drama over the Spaniard's injured foot.
While it's true Nadal wasn't playing at his top level, it should still be said Shapovalov did a lot of legwork to get across the finish line in the second set and break through in the third.
Shapovalov has never been past the second round here at Roland Garros in three appearances, but the 23-year-old owns a solid 66-36 record on the dirt across all levels in his young career. His game works on this surface.
Rune Getting Too Much Credit
Rune is an interesting case. He's just 19-years old and has already won enough matches to make it to No. 40 in the world.
His forehand is flashy, and it earned him plenty of Instagram followers before he was able to finally debut it on tour. Rune will surely be a top 15 player in due time, and he is part of this exciting next generation of players headlined by Carlos Alcaraz.
Because of Alcaraz's fast rise, though, oddsmakers have been quick to protect themselves from the next wunderkind.
Rune has already garnered the respect of sportsbooks, for better or for worse, without doing much of anything on tour.
He won his first title on the clay in Munich earlier this month, but it was hardly a monumental achievement. His signature win that week came over Alexander Zverev, who was completely checked out in a tournament he's rarely played well at.
Rune didn't even have to close out the week with a win because his final opponent, Botic Van De Zandschulp, was forced to retire after seven games.
The young Dane has done a lot of winning this year, but it's come in low-stakes matches against less-than-quality opponents. Rune will make some great runs at Roland Garros in the next five or so years, but against an opponent of this quality it could be tough.
Betting Value
You may call Shapovalov -130 a trap, and you may be right. This is a trap I'll gladly walk right into, however.
Rune has never won a match at a Grand Slam, and even if he starts off on the right foot here I find it hard to believe he can complete a victory over a seasoned and talented Denis Shapovalov, who has been winning matches at Slams for five years.
Rune's a player who has exciting weapons but makes far too many errors. In that way, he's just like Shapovalov.
The difference here is that the Canadian has experience and the fitness to hit well into the third or fourth hour on court. The errors will begin to show early for Rune, who I expect to struggle physically. He's got a history of cramping up in long matches, and he had to deal with that against Novak Djokovic last year at the U.S. Open and even last week in Lyon.
Take it from someone who has bet on rising stars in Grand Slam matches like Jannik Sinner at similar odds. The oddsmakers don't always have it right, and in this case I think they're being silly.
Pick: Shapovalov -130
