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The Australian Open gets underway on Saturday, beginning a day earlier than normal with a short slate of matches in both draws. That's right, it's that time of year to adjust your sleep schedule and stay up watching some of the best players in the world compete for one for one of the biggest prizes in tennis.
Here are my expert Australian Open betting picks for Marozsan vs Cilic and Shevchenko vs Munar.
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Expert Australian Open Betting Picks
Fabian Marozsan (-130) vs. Marin Cilic (+110)
7:15 p.m. ET
After playing just two matches in 2023 after he dealt with a major injury, Cilic has finally returned to the ATP Tour. We saw him play admirably in his first match back a week and a half ago, leading Jan-Lennard Struff throughout the match before letting the victory slip away late under pressure.
Aside from an exhibition, that's all we have to go off of. Cilic made just 49% of his first serves in that match and won 57% behind his second serve, and most concerning of all 12 of those points he lost on the second serve came on double faults.
It's safe to say it's going to take some time before Cilic shakes the rust off, and Marozsan is the last guy you want to face when you're looking to get back in rhythm. He's risen inside the world's top 70 following a breakthrough 2023 which saw him take out Carlos Alcaraz in the Rome Masters, and he's a player who will carry a lot of confidence into this match despite one win in three matches so far this January.
Marozsan's calling card is his drop shot, which he's proven can still be a weapon on a hard court. That's a nightmare for the 35-year old Cilic, who already wasn't the best mover and has hardly played any tennis over the last year. I suspect the Hungarian will stubbornly go back to the well with the drop shot for the duration of this match, and he will take Cilic's legs as a result. That's also pretty troublesome considering the Cilic serve — his biggest weapon — did not look good at all the last time we saw him play.
Marozsan had an impressive win over Richard Gasquet in his second career Grand Slam match last year at the US Open before giving World No. 20 Adrian Mannarino a great fight in the second round. The arrow is point up for the 24-year old, and he always seems to produce his best level on the biggest stages. I suspect Marozsan will not only win this match, but win several here in Melbourne as he makes his first big Grand Slam run.
Pick: Marozsan ML (-130 via DraftKings)
Alexander Shevchenko (-330) vs. Jaume Munar (+260)
6 p.m. ET
Alexander Shevchenko is just 23 and he seems to be finally showing us how far his natural ability can go. The Russian looks fitter than he ever has before, as evidenced by his marathon three-set win over Tomas Martin Etcheverry in Adelaide last week, and his brilliant second set against Holger Rune in Brisbane.
In Etcheverry and Luca Van Asshe, Shevchenko proved he can hang with strong defensive players in rallies and not bail them out by making silly errors — something we've seen a lot out of the rising youngster in his career. For that reason, as much of a pest as Jaume Munar can be on the court, I don't see his ability to be a backboard bothering Shevchenko much.
The Russian is playing very special tennis at the moment, and while questions about his stamina certainly throw some cold water on his prospects of making a deep run here in Melbourne, a first-round victory over Munar really should come in fairly easy fashion.
Munar has won exactly one match in five trips to the Australian Open and is a poor 2-9 on hard courts over the last two seasons across all levels. He should be overmatched here and with that I like laying the games with Shevchenko.
Pick: Shevchenko -5.5 Games (-120 via DraftKings)
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