The first round of the French Open wraps up on Tuesday with a packed slate of matches. I'll be looking at a couple of rising youngsters who are quickly putting together a nice clay-court resume, one of which enters his match as a sizable underdog.
Here are my expert French Open betting picks for De Minaur vs Michelsen and Navone vs Carreno Busta.
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Expert French Open Betting Picks
Alex de Minaur (-900) vs. Alex Michelsen (+650)
5 a.m. ET
The last time we saw Alex Michelsen at the Grand Slam stage, he dazzled with a run to the third round which included a victory over Jiri Lehecka before he ultimately fell to a player who simply hit him off the court in Alexander Zverev. It was clear the step up in competition was too much, failing to deal with a big hitter like that, and even then he still managed to find a break back in the second set to force a tiebreak he really could have won.
Well, he won't have to worry about a big hitter in the first round of the French Open when he takes on the lightning-quick Alex de Minaur. The Aussie struggles to boss with his serve and his expert defense doesn't quite play up on clay, which is why he's been vulnerable on the surface over the last few years.
De Minaur has shown some marginal improvements on the dirt this year with a 6-4 record, but he's still looked incredibly unconvincing and will now enter Roland Garros, where he's fallen in the first round in four of his six trips here and failed to piece together consecutive wins in all of his appearances.
As an American, Michelsen doesn't have a ton of clay-court experience but he's entered into a whopping eight tournaments leading up to this event and seems to be getting the hang of it with a recent trip to the quarterfinals in Geneva — a run which took him past the top American, Taylor Fritz.
By no means do I think a couple of wins in Geneva means you're ready to make a run at a Grand Slam, but I do think he's proven enough to say that he can push a version of de Minaur, one who is vulnerable on clay.
Pick: Over 32.5 games (-105 via DraftKings)
Mariano Navone (-500) vs. Pablo Carreno Busta (+400)
5 a.m. ET
Unlike Michelsen, Mariano Navone is a player with a wealth of clay-court experience. In fact, of the 35 matches he's contested this year, only one has been away from the dirt, and he's compiled a 214-111 record on clay across all levels dating back to his teenage years and has played just 10 times on either hard courts or grass.
Navone has quietly been one of the hotter players on tour with a trip to the final in Bucharest and a win in a stacked Cagliari Challenger tournament which took him past Luciano Darderi and Lorenzo Musetti.
While Carreno Busta may offer some name value here, he's not a player we can reasonably trust to beat a very in-form player. He hasn't played a clay match since July of 2022 and hasn't even played a match of any kind since losing at the Malaga Challenger back in October. He dealt with injuries last season and failed in his first comeback attempt, and now he'll have to face a rising youngster who is quickly gaining confidence at the main level.
Mix in the fact that Carreno Busta wasn't even as strong on clay as he was on hard courts during his last few seasons and I think we'll see a quick match.
Pick: Under 32.5 games (-105)
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