Expert French Open Betting Picks | Humbert vs Sonego & Moreno De Alboran vs Nakashima

The French Open begins on Sunday, beginning a day earlier than normal to keep suit with the rest of the Grand Slam events. That means we'll have high-stakes tennis to watch early in the day to keep things exciting over the long holiday weekend.

To kick things off, I'm taking a look at two early matches with present some value on a pair of short favorites.

Here are my expert French Open betting picks for Humbert vs Sonego and Moreno De Alboran vs Nakashima.

Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing French Open matches.

Expert French Open Betting Picks

Ugo Humbert (-185) vs Lorenzo Sonego (+155)

5 a.m. ET

Humbert, a Frenchman, has won just one of the six matches he's played over the course of his career at Roland Garros, and his most recent loss at this tournament came to none other than Lorenzo Sonego a season ago. He owns a losing record on clay and comes into this one on a two-match losing streak.

Yet it's Humbert who enters as the favorite here, not Sonego, and I think we have to respect the line.

Humbert has run into some tough customers on this surface over the last few weeks, and while he's lost four times his four wins were all over quality opponents. Among those he dispatched was Sonego, who he's now beaten on two straight occasions following their encounter at Roland Garros a year ago.

The 25-year old's biggest liability through the years has been his return of serve, which his coach Jeremy Chardy has helped him improve drastically. Even with the encouraging steps, he still did manage to struggle in this area in losses to Dominik Koepfer and Jan-Lennard Struff, who serve pretty well, but Sonego lacks the same kind of pop and accuracy that those two have.

If Humbert can just gain footing in return games, I think he's serving well enough in his own right at the moment to take this one in somewhat convincing fashion.

Pick: Humbert -3.5 games (-115 via DraftKings)

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Nicolas Moreno De Alboran (+150) vs Brandon Nakashima (-180)

5 a.m. ET

This is a very interesting matchup between two Americans who have gutted it out on the ATP Challenger Tour for the better part of four years. Nakashima briefly graduated to the main draws before some poor results sent him back down, while Moreno De Alboran awaits a breakthrough at this level.

Nakashima was an easy man to fade last year, but things have been a bit different in 2024 as he's won 34 of his 48 matches between the ATP and Challenger Tours and even knocked off Andrey Rublev a few weeks ago in Barcelona.

Moreno De Alboran is a very solid player, particularly on clay, but his record has floated around .500 this year and some of his defeats have come to shockingly poor names. It seems he's destined to be stuck in between the two levels for at least the next year as he looks to clean up some parts of his game, and his Grand Slam debut at last year's US Open was disheartening as he fell to an out-of-form Sonego, tiring at the end.

Nakashima has far more experience at this level, plays a cleaner game and possesses more talent. He shouldn't be hanging around Moreno De Alboran's level by the odds and I back him here to make quick work of the middling American.

Pick: Nakashima -1.5 sets (+120)

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