After a packed day of tennis Thursday thanks to some rain in Paris, we'll begin the third round of the French Open on what looks like another excellent day with so many big names in action.
I'm looking to fade a high seed who has struggled on clay over the years and may be in danger of departing this year's tournament before they can get to the second week, and back perhaps the best clay-courter in the world at the moment.
Here are my expert French Open betting picks for Hurkacz vs Shapovalov and Zhang vs Tsitipas.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing French Open matches.
Expert French Open Betting Picks
Hubert Hurkacz (-255) vs. Denis Shapovalov (+205)
8 a.m. ET
These two have met a total of five times, with Hurkacz controlling the head-to-head with a whopping four wins. With that said, they have never met on clay, and their only Grand Slam match — at last year's Australian Open — went five sets.
Even with fleeting results at Roland Garros, where Shapovalov has yet to reach the fourth round in his career, it's hard to say these two are all that far apart on clay. Hurkacz has done well to put together a solid 13-3 record on clay this year and even took home a title in Estoril, but his serve doesn't play here the same way it does on quicker courts and he, too, has had a rocky history at Roland Garros with an 8-6 record including this year's wins.
Hurkacz hasn't played like a top-10 or even top-20 player at the Grand Slams over the course of his career, with the exception of one semifinal run at Wimbledon and a quarterfinal appearance at the Australian Open this year. He struggles with the pressure and perhaps the best-of-five nature of the events where he can't put away his opponents early; even through two rounds. he's dropped three sets to two players he should somewhat handily beat.
Shapovalov has come through two very difficult opponents in Luca Van Assche and Frances Tiafoe to get here, solidifying what's been an encouraging clay season with quality wins even if the record isn't as shiny as Hurkacz's. I expect him to push for a win over the world No. 8 here, and while there's inherent value on the moneyline given the close nature of the opponents, I'm going to opt for the set spread here.
Back Shapovalov to take at least two.
Pick: Shapovalov +1.5 Sets (-115)
Zhizhen Zhang (+600) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (-900)
10 a.m. ET
In a match like this, I'm always reminded of what American Reilly Opelka said following his improbable run to the Toronto final a few years back. When you're used to having the biggest serve on the court every time you play and you face one that's surprisingly bigger than yours, it's unnerving.
Well, through his last 10 or so matches, Zhang has had the biggest forehand on the court. He's hit through some very good opposition on a clay court, where it's hard to exert dominance with power, particularly from the baseline. Friday should mark the first time in three months where Zhang is up against a forehand even bigger than his.
With injuries to Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, you could make a very compelling argument that Stefanos Tsitsipas has the best forehand in the world right now. During his marvelous run in the Masters 1000 tournaments on clay this year, he produced 40 more forehands in total than his opponents, which came as a result of many more than his opponents.
The thing with guys who are good on that wing is that, while they may be weaker on the backhand, they're very good at getting forehands while also taking away their opponents' strength. Tsitsipas has hit his forehand with ferocity, but the noticeable area where he's been at the height of the game is in the RPMs he's getting on the topspin forehand.
I think Zhang may be in over his head in this one against a guy who has been world class on this surface for five years and has the ability to limit the damage he can do on the forehand. While I'm a card-carrying member of the Zhang Gang, this match is simply going to lack the look and feel of his many wins over the last few weeks.
Pick: Tsitsipas 3-0 (-125)
Get the most out of your French Open wagers with our DraftKings promo code.
