The French Open gets underway Sunday morning here in the United States, and there are plenty of reasons to get excited even on a short slate on Day 1.
I'm looking to back an under-appreciated Frenchman in his opening match while I fade a fellow young French player who's up against a tough opponent.
Here are my expert French Open betting picks for Jarry vs Moutet and Korda vs Mayot.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing French Open matches.
Expert French Open Betting Picks
Nicolas Jarry (-225) vs. Corentin Moutet (+185)
10 a.m. ET
Zverev-Nadal has garnered all the attention, but this match could very well be the best we see in the first round if the last meeting between these two is any indication.
After a long 2023 which saw Corentin Moutet hurt his wrist and attempt to play through the injury by abandoning his two-handed backhand for a one-handed slice, the Frenchman — who once upon a time was ranked No. 51 in the world — is back in full form this year. He trained all of last summer on the clay, and he's played nothing but clay-court tennis this year, with an 18-13 record across all levels.
One of those wins came in Santiago, Chile, over the home favorite Nicolas Jarry. It was a highly-watchable and dramatic match that began with an underarm serve and ended with Moutet soaking in a chorus of boos from the Chilean crowd as he earned a win in straight sets.
Moutet may have lost the previous three meetings between these two, but they've all been relatively close. With home-court advantage flipped to the Frenchman here, I think he is being treated unfairly by the oddsmakers.
The lefty has the tools to unnerve Jarry with his ability to bring points to the net and play expert defense from the back of the court, pressure that Jarry can frequently crumble under as he's forced to hit more and more heavy forehands. Furthermore, Moutet has a great track record playing in front of French crowds even with some varying degrees of success here at Roland Garros.
He did take a set off Andrey Rublev here last year and the year prior defeated Stan Wawrinka before running into Rafael Nadal. He should be up for the challenge here, and against a version of Jarry that, despite his ranking, is still less than his best from my view, I think he comes away with a win.
Pick: Moutet ML (+185 via DraftKings)
Sebastian Korda (-475) vs. Harold Mayot (+370)
10 a.m. ET
While home crowds can lift players to new heights, Harold Mayot has never been a player to galvanize the fanbase in the matches I've seen him play. He isn't quite as eccentric as his fellow countrymen and plays a rather unassuming baseline game with few weapons and little excitement.
His play style doesn't lend itself to clay even though he's played a ton of matches on this surface, and his 52-49 record across all competitions through the year is the proof. He's had a mediocre season to this point with 11 wins in 19 matches, falling in qualifying for Lyon last week, winning just one match at the Bordeaux Challenger and losing twice in Rome after entering as a lucky loser. It all amounts to six defeats in nine matches.
On the flip side, Sebastian Korda has drawn the ire of many bettors and stands at 3-4 this season, coming into a tournament where he's failed to get back to the fourth round in three trips after debuting in Paris with a few wins in 2020.
I'm still not ready to blindly fade Korda in this spot, however, given he's played much tougher competition than Mayot and possesses oodles more talent. Despite a loss in Madrid, he looked pretty convincing against Daniil Medvedev, and in Rome he ran into a red-hot Taylor Fritz. This isn't going to be the same kind of match, and Korda should easily be able to dictate play with his power and his very accurate two-handed backhand.
Pick: Under 35.5 (-110)
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