We begin the second round of the French Open from Roland Garros on Wednesday, and though the slate isn't as fun as Thursday's ought to be, it should still present plenty of betting value.
I'm targeting an underdog who may be ready to awaken from a slumber against a volatile opponent and back the history of one top player to prevent him from making quick work of his opponent.
Here are my expert French Open betting picks for Shapovalov vs Tiafoe and Rublev vs Martinez for May 29.
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Expert French Open Betting Picks
Denis Shapovalov (-170) vs. Frances Tiafoe (+140)
6:30 a.m. ET
It's admittedly tough to make the case for Tiafoe here. After all, he's fallen to 26th in world with a pretty poor last calendar year and enters this match with a losing record in 2024. His opponent, meanwhile, has caught a bit of fire as he attempts to rescue his falling ranking and is fresh off a win over a very impressive young player in Luca Van Assche.
The thing is that this is where it's best to back the American. I've spent the last year or so fading him as an over-ranked, over-priced player but with no expectations and nothing to lose this is as good of a price as you can ask for. Tiafoe seems to have a nose to the ground once again as he's been a bit humbled by his play over the last seven or so months, dipping back down to the Challenger level to ensure he got enough experience on clay in the lead-up to the French Open.
His win over Mattia Bellucci in the first round certainly wasn't incredibly convincing, but as you learn with tennis betting it's not always an indicator of future success. In fact, I'd argue the match was good for Tiafoe as he had to find his best level to persevere in that one and should come into this one on high alert.
I'd price this at a pick 'em, so I think you're getting very good value here. Shapovalov has owned the head-to-head 4-2 over their careers, but Tiafoe not only won their last encounter in Canada three years ago but hasn't yet faced this version of Shapovalov, who is down on his confidence and starved for form.
Shapovalov has played a lot better this year and has been a target of mine through the months, but he still enters this one with a losing record in all matches and a 4-5 mark on clay. He's been incredibly unreliable to bet on and this is certainly not a line I'd set.
Pick: Tiafoe ML (+140)
Andrey Rublev (-650) vs. Pedro Martinez (+475)
8:30 a.m. ET
It'd be irresponsible to base a handicap solely on one match these two played, but first and foremost I do want to call attention to the lone battle between these two, which came at the 2021 US Open. Rublev was stunned by Martinez's relentless nature, even away from clay, and the two split a pair of tiebreakers to begin the match before Rublev ultimately ran away with the contest.
Well, this one could easily be just as close in nature. Martinez has had a stunning season with 24 wins in 37 matches across all levels, reaching the final of Estoril with a win over Casper Ruud, winning one of two finals at the Challenger level and posting some more wins in main draws. He appears to be healthy and back to playing the tennis he's been capable of in the past, and I think he's ripe to push Rublev in this one.
The Russian's been just as excellent on the clay as he's been on hard courts through the years, but for whatever reason this tournament has been a house of horrors for him. Rublev's lost in the first round twice in five trips to Roland Garros, and even in some of his wins over poor opponents like Sam Querrey and Soonwoo Kwon he's let his opponents into the match. He lost as a sizable favorite to Lorenzo Soengo last season in the third round as well.
I don't think Rublev will be all that convincing this week, and he's already dropped a set he shouldn't have to Taro Daniel. I like a second straight match of his to go over the total.
Pick: Over 34.5 games (-110)
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