The French Open continues from Roland Garros on Monday as we get a complement of first-round matches dripping with intrigue.
I'm unsurprisingly looking to two juicy underdogs with plenty of name value who have drawn the ire of oddsmakers for years but should have a great shot at advancing.
Here are my expert French Open betting picks for Shevchenko vs Karatsev and Fognini vs Van de Zandschulp.
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Expert French Open Betting Picks
Alexander Shevchenko (-160) vs Aslan Karatsev (+135)
5 a.m. ET
Now here's a line that I don't quite understand. Aslan Karatsev suffered a devastating knee injury early in the Australian Open which kept him away from the court for months, but he's put together some encouraging performances since returning in April despite a 1-3 record on the clay.
He's also the player with far more experience and success at the Grand Slam level, winning a pair of matches in five tries here in France and memorably making the semifinals in Australia a few years ago. Shevchenko, on the other hand, has gone 1-4 in all his Slam matches, barely beating an out-of-form Oscar Otte here a year ago and falling in a no-contest to Lorenzo Musetti.
Shevchenko's had a losing record this year as well, and while he hasn't had an injury he has still failed to display the stamina required to compete in best-of-five with cramps frequently getting the best of him. He's also looked pretty flat on the court and has had a ton of trouble limiting the unforced errors.
This match should be an ugly one with both players making plenty of mistakes, but in such a match you'd have to back the player with more ability who has been a menace on clay over the years even though he's been one of the most volatile players on tour. Karatsev notably improved his serve late last year, and he's remained strong in that area at least until he's given up on the match in his last three.
I think he'll find footing early against a nervy Shevchenko who's starved for form, and his experience will tell the story in the end.
Pick: Karatsev ML (+142 via FanDuel)
Fabio Fognini (+185) vs Botic Van de Zandschulp (-220)
8 a.m. ET
Fognini, like Karatsev, has been a nightmare for bettors through the years thanks to his high degree of volatility. Now, at 37, he's got no reason to fool around on the court as his retirement looms. He's also got plenty to play for after he was vocal about being passed up for Italy's Davis Cup team a year ago, and this could be his last Roland Garros.
Fognini's had some great results on hard courts through the years, but clay has decidedly been his best surface. That rung true a year ago when he went 0-8 on outdoor hard and 23-12 on the dirt, and this year he's got a winning record on clay against a losing record elsewhere.
The Italian came up with a pair of promising wins over Dan Evans and Giulio Zeppieri over the last couple of weeks and prior to that came through qualifying in Marrakech to make the quarterfinals.
While he's showing signs of life, we can't say the same for Van de Zandschulp who's fallen outside the world's top 100 and has lacked quality wins during clay season with a losing record in the main draws. It seems this line is too kind to Van de Zandschulp, baking in his results from last season, and I don't think enough attention is being paid to the work Fognini has done on clay over the past calendar year.
I like Fognini to win at least one match here in Paris, something he's done in six of the past seven years, but the best play is on him to lose in five, at worst.
Pick: Fognini +1.5 sets (-120 via DraftKings)
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