The first round of the French Open rolls on Monday as some of the big names in the men's draw take the court. I'm looking to fade a pair of big names against some talented underdogs, one of which will be playing in front of a raucous crowd and looks poised to make his first real breakthrough.
Here are my expert French Open betting picks for Van Assche vs Shapovalov and Koepfer vs Medvedev.
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Expert French Open Betting Picks
Luca Van Assche (+150) vs. Denis Shapovalov (-175)
8 a.m. ET
If you're not familiar with Luca Van Assche, he's an incredible athlete. He has stamina for days and his movement on the court allows for him to get surefire winners back into play to extend points.
Good defenders have been the undoing of Shapovalov over the years, and even in 2024 as he's worked to take a bit of pace off the ball to limit errors, he's still crumbled under pressure and donated far too many points to his opponents, especially on the second serve.
Van Assche was the Boy's Singles champion here a few years ago and is beloved by the people in France, which is sure to create a very difficult atmosphere for the Canadian to compete in. Even with a few nice wins under his belt, too, it's still hard to trust Shapovalov here with all the issues in his game which have led him to another losing record in 2024.
On top of that, I'm not even sure Shapovalov is the better player. Van Assche is still just 20 years of age and as a young player is subject to a lot of head-scratching losses and tough draws early in Grand Slams. Even then, he impressed with a couple of wins in Australia and his breakthrough is coming any day now. He's far better than his ranking, and better than this price.
Pick: Van Assche ML (+150 via DraftKings)
Dominik Koepfer (+360) vs. Daniil Medvedev (-450)
9:30 a.m. ET
Ah, Medvedev and France. It's absolutely the last country he'd like to be playing in after his constant wars with the crowds here, questioning what it's like to have "no brain" inside at the Paris Masters a couple of seasons ago and flipping off the crowd last year after an early exit.
He doesn't exactly like to play on clay, either. Despite a great year on the dirt last year, he's been very middling on this surface at 6-3 this year. It's very clear that he's not the unbeatable wall he is on hardcourts, and after losing in the first round of Roland Garros last season he's now failed to make it out of his opening match in five of seven appearances here.
I'm not ready to call an outright loss for Medvedev, but Koepfer is a surprisingly big server and a very competent and experienced player, particularly on clay. This one's going to be a bit tricky for the Russian, and I'll back Koepfer to cover the games as a result.
Pick: Koepfer +6.5 Games (-110)
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