The US Open begins on Monday morning in New York, and there are a pair of American men who should rise to the occasion behind some home support and are well-positioned against some volatile opponents.
I'll be taking a look at a veteran of the ATP Challenger Tour who has played some good ball this summer as well as a returning servebot who will be hungry for ranking points this week at the US Open.
Here are my expert US Open betting picks for Grenier vs Krueger and Opelka vs Musetti.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing US Open matches.
Expert US Open Betting Picks
Hugo Grenier (+120) vs Mitchell Krueger (-150)
11 a.m. ET
It's certainly been a career for Mitchell Krueger. He's now 30 years of age and has yet to crack the world's top 100, but he'll have a chance here after qualifying for the just the third time in 10 tries.
Krueger took out some relatively good players on the way here, namely Vit Kopriva and Max Marterer, and that comes off the back of an encouraging summer. He qualified for Washington and won a match there against Luca Nardi before pushing Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to three sets and earlier in the season he won the Little Rock Challenger, Indian Wells Challenger and came up with a run to the final in Tallahassee.
All told, Krueger has now won 37 matches — his most since 2018 — and on hard courts he's compiled a 26-11 record across all competitions as he continues to play well on this surface exclusively.
I respect the line that oddsmakers have set here but I think the American comes in as a decisive favorite. His opponent, Hugo Grenier, didn't have nearly as difficult of a qualifying draw and while he's done a similar amount of winning on the Challenger Tour he's faltered every time he's entered main draws. Krueger has had that experience this season and has played in more US Open matches than his opponent as well. He's also generally raised his level in ATP events in the United States, and with some crowd support — which he gets at a surprising rate — I'll back him to win here.
Pick: Krueger ML (-150 via DraftKings)
Reilly Opelka (+175) vs Lorenzo Musetti (-225)
2:30 p.m. ET
The big man is back, and he's certainly turned some heads with the way he's been able to perform after sitting out for two months as he battles several injuries. Once the No. 17 player in the world, Opelka doesn't seem all that far off from the level which took him past some of the best players in the world and to the final of a Masters 1000 a few seasons ago.
Opelka's lost three in a row coming into the US Open, but he's faced three quality opponents and in his last two has watched his fate be decided in a tiebreak. He debuted this year with a semifinal run at Newport, and the biggest eyebrow-raiser has been his competence from the baseline.
Now, he'll draw Musetti, who he's taken out in straight sets in three meetings. His big serve has proved to be too much for Musetti, who struggles a bit on return, and the Italian's confidence seems to once again be shattered after another loss to Novak Djokovic at the Olympics. He's had to grind for his two wins since that match, and he's had some flashes of brilliance but far more periods of concern.
Opelka's last trip to the US Open saw him make the fourth round, and like some other Americans he fares much better in the U.S. hard court swing. Musetti's had several heartbreaking losses at this tournament over the years, on the other hand, and I think his weak forehand should serve up some easy winners to Opelka around the free points he gets on serve.
Pick: Opelka ML (+175)
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