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The men's round of 16 at Wimbledon begins on Sunday with four matches, including the two I'm lining up for my best bets.
Novak Djokovic looks to continue his unstoppable form against Hubert Hurkacz, while Jannik Sinner takes on one of the tournament's surprises, Daniel Galan.
Dive in below for my two expert Wimbledon picks for Sunday.
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Wimbledon Expert Picks
Novak Djokovic (-2300) vs Hubert Hurkacz (+1060)
11:45 a.m. ET
With a French Open and Australian Open title in 2023, Novak Djokovic is playing at a step above the rest of the tennis world. And that play has carried over into Wimbledon, as the Serbian has won all three of his matches in straight sets.
Djokovic has actually failed to cover the spread in two of his three matches (vs. Pedro Cachin and Jordan Thompson), but that hasn’t taken anything away from his level and form.
Now Djokovic turns his attention to Hubert Hurkacz, who is coming off of a straight-set victory over Lorenzo Musetti. Hurkacz reached the semifinals at Wimbledon in 2021 and like Djokovic, he hasn’t dropped a set in his first three matches this year.
But I just can’t bet against Djokovic in this situation — at least not until someone, anyone, shows they can truly compete with the veteran.
There’s history to back up Djokovic cruising past the 7.5-game spread, too. The 36-year-old has won all five of his head-to-head matches against Hurkacz, dropping just two total sets.
They’ve actually played twice in major championships, with Djokovic defeating Hurkacz by eight games at Wimbledon in 2019 and 10 games at the French Open in the same year.
It also helps that Djokovic has been almost impossible to beat in tiebreakers in Grand Slams. He’s won his last nine breakers, which can be especially deflating for a player like Hurkacz, who relies heavily on his big serve.
Give me Djokovic in straight sets while covering the spread.
Pick:Novak Djokovic -7.5 games (+112 via FanDuel)
Jannik Sinner (-3500) vs Daniel Elahi Galan (+1280)
9:15 a.m. ET
American Chris Eubanks has been a special story in London, but Daniel Galan is a great one in his own right.
The Colombian played a total of five ATP grass-court matches in his career and never made it past the second round at Wimbledon before this week. He also entered this tournament ranked just 85th in the world with just two ATP main-draw victories this year in 14 tries.
Galan has pressed the reset button in this event though, cruising through Yoshihito Nishioka in straight sets in his opening-round match before defeating Oscar Otte and Mikael Ymer in four and five sets, respectively.
However, this round of 16 clash against Jannik Sinner is a major step up in competition.
Sinner has been playing superb tennis, even though he dropped a set to Quentin Halys in round 3.
Sinner has won his first three matches by an average of 9.7 games, including a 12-game victory over Juan Manuel Cerundolo in Round 1 and an 11-game win against Diego Schwartzman in the second round.
I always worry about Sinner’s consistency — even within the course of certain matches, his ball striking and serve can waver — but the talent level alone is a significant advantage in favor of the Italian.
Also, in the lone meeting between the two in 2021, Sinner was able to bagel Galan on his way to a straight-set victory.
The spread of 8.5 games is a lot — I admit — but Sinner seems to be on a mission, and this is just too significant of a jump in competition for the Colombian.
