As our busy week of previews from the US Open rolls on, I have another two men's matches that I think are solid bets for the second day of action from New York.
Here are my looks for Bellucci – Wawrinka and Bergs – Kotov in my Tuesday US Open predictions from the men's draw.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing US Open matches.
First Round US Open Predictions
Zizou Bergs (-128) vs Pavel Kotov (+104)
3:30 p.m. ET
It's becoming increasingly clear to me that Bergs, as talented as he is, has become a "dog or pass" kind of player and is best to back in best-of-three set contests. His physical issues within matches persist and at 25 years old, it's hard to see this issue not following him around his whole career.
That's not exactly conducive to success in the main draw at a slam, much less in New York City late in August.
Kotov may not look like a physical specimen himself, but he's had fewer issues with running out of gas than Bergs and has more tour level success to his name as well.
He has a sneaky strong serve and forehand combination and with the prices indicating a fairly even matchup, if this one does go long, I think his edge becomes more and more pronounced.
Just last week, Bergs put together one of his better weeks on the main circuit. He beat Reilly Opelka in three sets and then took down Tomas Martin Etcheverry as well. It's worth noting he had a day off between those two matches. Yet when asked to back up that second win against Alex Michelsen? He looked like his gas tank from empty from the get-go.
I'll happily take Kotov at even money in a match where I think the conditions alone should see him be at least a slight favorite.
Pick: Kotov ML (+104 via BetRivers)
Mattia Bellucci (-275) vs Stanislas Wawrinka (+200)
5 p.m. ET
Move this match indoors and make it a best-of-three match and this market looks drastically different. At this stage of his career, Wawrinka simply isn't built for best-of-five tennis, let alone best-of-five tennis in any sort of heat and humidity.
Now toss him a first-round draw against one of the form players of the hard court summer in Bellucci, who can play five-setters and doesn't tend to mind longer rallies and matches and you have to figure he's in big trouble.
I'm going to keep this one fairly simple. Can Wawrinka keep this close for a set? Sure. Two sets? Maybe. It's tough to see him pushing Bellucci once this one reaches the third set and any potential fourth frame.
Pick: Bellucci -3.5 (-125 via DraftKings)
