Tiafoe vs. Bublik Odds
| Tiafoe Odds | -105 |
| Bublik Odds | -110 |
| Total | 41.5 (-105 / -115) |
| Time | How to Watch | 6 a.m. ET | ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here. | |
Frances Tiafoe is a favorite of many to reach the quarterfinals of Quarter 2, and perhaps the semifinal, where he could match up with Novak Djokovic.
While his play has certainly been good enough to warrant those claims, he'll first have to get by a very tricky opponent on Friday at Wimbledon in Alexander Bublik.
Will the American do what he's been unable to do twice in his career and win a third-round match at Wimbledon? Let's get into it.
Tiafoe In Familiar Territory
Tiafoe is no stranger to this spot. Just last season, he reached the third round of Wimbledon before being knocked out by an in-form Karen Khachanov in straight sets.
In 2018, the story was the same, though it was Khachanov in five sets, not three.
Tiafoe is 21-16 in the surface for his career at all levels, and in the last two years he's a splendid 12-5 on grass with a title at the Nottingham Challenger last year. His big serve and quick forehand make him lethal on these courts, as does his fantastic backhand slice.
He hasn't lost a set of tennis on the grass since Eastbourne, winning an exhibition in two sets over Carlos Alcaraz and winning his first two matches at the All England Club in straight sets. The last time he lost a set on the grass was against none other than Bublik just two weeks ago.
It was a match which was thoroughly dominated by Tiafoe, who led by a set and a break before dropping the second set in a tiebreak and totally collapsing in the third.
Bublik Enjoys Playing On Grass
The World No. 38's win over Tiafoe in Eastbourne before Wimbledon delivered him some sweet revenge after the American took him out at the Citi Open back in 2019, and with a head-to-head win finally under his belt, perhaps he'll come into this matchup with confidence.
Bublik's playing like a man who will be tough to beat, winning five of his last seven matches with losses to Marin Cilic and Taylor Fritz — two very solid grass players.
He is one of those in his own right, going 27-20 on the surface in his career thanks to his massive serve and deft touch on slices.
It was on grass where Bublik first announced himself to the world, defeating four opponents in Newport in 2019 en route to his first ATP final, where he was taken out in two sets by John Isner.
Betting Value
I want to reiterate how dominant Tiafoe was in Eastbourne before inexplicably fumbling away a second-set lead against Bublik. He was all over the Kazakh, breaking down his backhand wing and charging the net with a purpose.
While it can be a cop-out to say at times, that was a match where Tiafoe simply threw in the towel. The emotional letdown of losing the second set coupled with a relatively meaningless tournament caused the match to end in short order. There was no reason for Tiafoe to dig deep with a Grand Slam around the corner, and it was easy for him to coast to the finish line.
With the stakes higher, I'd expect Tiafoe to dig his heels in and reassert his dominance. He is the more consistent of the players off of both wings and his serve is, at the very least, comparable to Bublik's.
The margins will be mighty fine here, but I'd expect Tiafoe to prevail and finally reach that elusive fourth round.
Pick: Tiafoe ML -105
