The fourth round of the French Open begins on Sunday morning in Paris, and hopefully this day will be free of the rainy conditions we've had to endure for the first week of the tournament.
Rain or shine, these two matches will be played — and I think while fireworks will ensue as a beloved Frenchman takes the court there's at least one favorite who should come through his match without much drama.
Here are my French Open betting picks for Arnaldi vs Tsitsipas and Moutet vs Sinner.
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French Open Betting Picks
Matteo Arnaldi (+380) vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (-500)
6:15 a.m. ET
Stefanos Tsitsipas is on fire. We shouldn't have expected anything different here at Roland Garros after an impressive 13-3 start on the clay leading into the tournament and an incredible record on the dirt over the years, but his flat play on hard courts and grass over the years have led us to question just how good this guy is.
Tsitsipas has actually been aided by the conditions here at Roland Garros, which have been a bit quicker due to the rain and the lack of sunshine. While he's struggled to dominate on altitude clay through the years, the cloudy conditions on Sunday as well as the rain that's fallen should mean that the court continues to play a bit slicker for him and help his powerful serve and forehand play up.
That's tough news for Matteo Arnaldi, who loves a high-bouncing and slow clay court where he can expertly craft points. I don't know how many extended points we'll see with the way that Tstisipas is crushing the forehand, and in that case his magical run here in Paris is likely coming to an end.
I'm a noted fan of Arnaldi, but this is a step up that I don't think he's ready for. Andrey Rublev really beat himself last round with a bunch of unforced errors and once again struggled on his second serve. That shouldn't happen again here.
Pick: Tsitsipas -5.5 games (-120)
Corentin Moutet (+1200) vs Jannik Sinner (-2000)
2:15 p.m. ET
I've been signing the praises of Corentin Moutet for months now and it feels wonderful to see the Frenchman playing his best tennis once again. After a full season of playing with one hand due to a wrist injury in the hopes of preserving all the ranking points he could, he's now fully healthy and has quickly reminded us of just how talented he is.
This match is going to be a very captivating one. Jannik Sinner still seems unsure of how his hip is going to hold up over the course of this two-week tournament, and against the clay-averse Christopher Eubanks and a player in Pavel Kotov who doesn't move well and donates errors, he hasn't been tested much. This will be the biggest challenge yet for Sinner with Moutet's incredible ability to get to shots, expert touch and genius point construction.
I think Sinner will be running all over the court, and any potential liabilities let on by his hip will show themselves. Even if fully healthy, the atmosphere on Chatrier is going to be one he hasn't experienced on some time, and he'll have to battle through it on what's been his worst surface through the years.
Despite a loss in straight sets on Chatrier years ago to Rafael Nadal, Moutet rose to the occasion and looked incredibly focused and motivated throughout. He put forth just about the best performance he could, extending a bunch of rallies and just being defeated by the best clay-courter to ever live. Sinner may be the best in the world right now, but he's no Nadal on clay and is going to fall victim to Moutet at least for some of the proceedings here.
I think Moutet is very live to push this match five sets, and taking one is all but certain in my eyes. He's playing some extraordinary tennis and should really wear down Sinner physically — so if he doesn't grab the first I still think he can negotiate at least one of the next two.
Pick: Moutet +2.5 sets (+135)
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