We're approaching the end of the third round of the French Open, and despite a big upset to start the day Friday, we've still yet to see many big names fall.
I'm ready to put two of the top-15 seeds in the men's draw on upset alert, and will bet one to lose outright.
Here are my French Open betting picks for Cerundolo vs. Paul and Djokovic vs. Musetti.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing French Open matches.
French Open Betting Picks
Francisco Cerundolo (+140) vs. Tommy Paul (-170)
10 a.m. ET
Francisco Cerundolo is the ultimate gamble. He has unmistakable talent, smokes the ball off his forehand win with ease and with a wealth of experience on clay, much has been expected of him at Roland Garros over the past few years.
Cerundolo's undoing has been a steadily high unforced error count and an inability to play in pressure situations. Well, he has seemingly ticked the first box a bit this year as he boasts a winning clay record heading into this match. And in beating Alexander Zverev and Tommy Paul leading up to Roland Garros, he's seemed to answer the bell when it comes to the second.
The Argentine rose to the occasion last year at Roland Garros as he made the fourth round with a big win over Taylor Fritz, then pushed Holger Rune to a deciding tiebreak as a decently sized underdog. I think he's ready to build on that success here against Paul.
The World No. 14 has gone just 24-21 on clay since 2019, which includes his three wins here, and will be making his first fourth-round appearance at the French Open following several years of frustrating defeats. He hasn't quite lived up to his potential on this surface, perhaps due to the fact that his defense is a big weapon and his backhand is rather flat.
For whatever reason, I'm not seeing the same dominance out of Paul on the clay, and that has him in a prickly spot considering he lost his only match on the dirt to Cerundolo and has only taken two of their five meetings. I'd back the more fine-tuned player on this surface and the only one with a discernible weapon.
Pick: Cerundolo Moneyline (+140)
Novak Djokovic (-525) vs. Lorenzo Musetti (+390)
2:15 p.m. ET
I'm starting to believe in young Italian Lorenzo Musetti. Thanks to a torrid run in late 2020, he was able to stick in the main draws as just a teenager. He spent just about a year on the Challenger Tour and managed to keep his ranking up high enough to become a mainstay at the ATP level.
Everything came easily, and very quickly for Musetti. Then, suddenly everything went wrong when he blew a two sets-to-love lead to Novak Djokovic at the 2021 French Open. He never seemed to be the same after that, even with some nice weeks in the following two years, and looked incredibly frustrated while disappointing in most of the year's biggest tournaments.
I think now, at 22, Musetti has learned a lot of lessons about being a pro and has matured before our eyes. He's been humbled by the parity on tour and looks focused and determined this week, playing with real belief for the first time in a while. Despite a rather unassuming record, if there were a time for the Italian to step back to Djokovic at this tournament, it'd be now.
It's not only because Musetti looks to be gaining confidence, but also because Djokovic looks more vulnerable this season than he has in some time. He suffered a few shocking defeats in the lead up to Roland Garros and has had the easiest draw imaginable to this point, though he's certainly earned it as World No. 1.
Still, this should be a very difficult test for Djokovic given the flat form and the history between these two, which includes a loss to Musetti in the Monte Carlo Masters last season. With little value to be found in Musetti to nick a set here, I'm opting for the games.
Pick: Musetti +6.5 Games (-115)
Get the most out of your French Open wagers with our DraftKings promo code.
