We've got a great day of tennis ahead on Saturday as the third round of the French Open concludes from Paris. As the days go on, the matchups get better, and we've got two of the world's 11 best players in action to begin the slate.
I'm looking to back one of them in what should be a clear and convincing victory while I fade the other, who's struggled to win on clay in his career.
Here are myFrench Open betting picks for De Minaur vs Struff and Zverev vs Griekspoor.
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French Open Betting Picks
Alex de Minaur (-130) vs. Jan-Lennard Struff (+105)
5 a.m. ET
I'm not quite sure Alex de Minaur should enter as the favorite in this one. Yes, he made the top 10 for the first time in his career back in January and stands at No. 11 in the world, but clay has long been a surface where's been less than his best. His legendary speed and defense doesn't play up on clay, where players routinely have time to get to balls around the court, and his flat forehand and backhand are incredibly easy to do damage against.
While he stands at just 8-4 this clay season, which includes two wins here in Paris, Jan-Lennard Struff is working on an 11-3 season which included a plethora of big wins over the likes of Taylor Fritz and Holger Rune and a title on the dirt in Munich last month.
Struff was a late bloomer and suffered an injury right around the pandemic, so it's easy to forget how good this guy was when he rose into the world's top 50 back in 2017 and 2018. Though his big serve-forehand combination has made him tough to play on a hardcourt, he's been a weapon on clay with a whopping 337-184 record over the course of his career at all levels.
Growing up on the surface — something de Minaur didn't have the benefit of doing — has helped Struff round out his game across all surfaces and it's hard to say he's not one of the 10 deadliest on tour at the moment when it comes to this surface.
Struff has done enough to earn himself a better line here, including taking out de Minaur in straight sets last year at the Masters 1000 level in Monte Carlo.
Pick: Struff ML (+112 via FanDuel)
Alexander Zverev (-800) vs. Tallon Griekspoor (+600)
9 a.m. ET
If it feels like you've seen this match a million times before, it's because you have. These two have met a total of four times, beginning at Wimbledon in 2021 and most recently at Indian Wells earlier in the year. Other than a three-set match in Rotterdam — a home tournament for Griekspoor at the ATP 500 level — this head-to-head has been bossed by Zverev.
The German hasn't dropped a set in the three other matches en route to victory, and I don't see it happening here. Griekspoor put together a long-awaited career year in 2023 but has since taken a bit of a step back over the last seven or eight months. He entered Roland Garros with a 15-12 record, including going 5-5 on the clay, and dropping a set to Mackenzie McDonald in the first round wasn't exactly the most inspiring performance given the American's record on clay.
Zverev looks to be one of the three best players on clay in the world, if not the best, and he has torn through two experienced clay-courters in Rafael Nadal and David Goffin in the first two rounds. Those matches surely have helped him snap into focus earlier than usual at the Grand Slam stage, and with him on the ball from the jump here, I don't think he'll allow Griekspoor into the match.
Pick: Zverev 3-0 (-125 via FanDuel)
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