It's time for some of the busiest days on the sports betting calendar, as the French Open is upon us and 192 singles matches are set to be played in the next five days.
Let's take a look at a pair of matches from the women's draw on the opening day of action that I'm targeting as mis-priced spots on the board.
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French Open Betting Picks
Nuria Parrizas Diaz (-115) vs Storm Hunter (-105)
5 a.m. ET
First up on Court 8 for the year's second slam is a the tilt featuring Nuria Parrizas Diaz and Storm Hunter.
This one is lined incredibly closely for a match that sees one player play at tour level far more regularly and also possess a significant surface advantage.
That would be the 31-year old native of Granada, Spain, who has far more experience and success on the red stuff in her career, is strong from both wings on the baseline (key against a left-handed opponent) and who's only priced at this cheap of a number because of a mid-match retirement last week.
The injury could hinder her in theory – perhaps look to a book that voids bets upon one player retiring – but it's always important to take retirements from matches the week before a Grand Slam with a grain of salt.
We saw that from a slew of players who still expect to play this week across the tennis world (Felix Auger-Aliassime and the woman that Parrizas Diaz retired against, Martina Trevisan, are also in the singles draws despite having left their tuneup tournaments early).
If it was something serious, it's likely the Spaniard would've withdrawn from the field entirely, seeing as Slams cut the prize money for those who entered the event with an injury and retire in their opening match.
Finally, Sanders simply hasn't proven much of anything dating back to the start of last season on the clay. She was clobbered by competent WTA Tour players on red clay in 2022 and even lost her opening-round match in Paris to Lin Zhu. This season she has seven wins on clay (many of those on the quicker green Har Tru clay found in the southeastern United States) and not one of them would be categorized as a clay courter.
I'll stick with Parrizas Diaz to advance in this one.
Pick: Parrizas Diaz ML (-115 via DraftKings)
Kamilla Rakhimova (-120) vs Sara Bejlek (+100)
7 a.m ET
A few hours later, the match that pits Kamilla Rakhimova and emerging youngster Sara Bejlek is set to get underway over on Court 9.
This one is funny, because just a week or two ago this would've been a tough match to grapple with, simply thanks to Bejlek's form.
There's no doubt that she's been undervalued in a big way in certain spots so far in 2023, but she's also mixed in some erratic play that has left her with some head-scratching losses.
Following a terrific qualifying campaign to reach the main draw that saw her drop the opening set in a tiebreak before winning the next six, she's set to take on a solid gatekeeper-like player in Rakhimova.
The Russian is solid on clay, but doesn't have many head-turning wins. She's got a fairly consistent game from the baseline and can dictate with her forehand, yet she's far from being a wall and she doesn't have any real weapons.
For the 17-year old Czech, this is an eminently winnable match, and one I'd expect her to come through after seeing her play within herself in qualifying.
She may not have the biggest serve (typical of most teenagers), but the attacking topspin she can generate with her lefty forehand is impressive for someone of her age and she can move the ball around the court with depth so well.
Even in her most recent loss to Nao Hibino, she was the far more effective player when she wasn't spraying errors and clearly the more natural player on the dirt.
I'll take that potential and talent at even money here against someone who is solid, but far from the top of the game.
Pick: Bejlek ML (+100 via PointsBet)
