Looking for Friday match picks? Click here!
Finding ways to take advantage of tennis lines can come in a variety of ways. It could be that one player has an inflated or deflated value or a particular matchup may present a unique tactical edge.
Tomorrow there are two matches where I see great value in the betting market – one for each reason listed above. Jannik Sinner faces Daniel Altmaier in a marathon rematch from the US Open last year and Borna Coric battles Pedro Cachin looking to reach the third round.
Here is why I see value in both of these matchups.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing French Open matches.
Jannik Sinner (-1200) vs Daniel Altmaier (+750)
6:30 a.m. ET
Sinner has been one of the best players on tour this year. He suffered just his second loss to a player currently ranked outside of the top 10 in Rome – Francisco Cerundolo. Towards the end of the match, he didn't seem quite right, but he appears to be back into strong form after his first round beat down of Alexandre Muller. I believe you could argue that Sinner is the best player from the baseline in the world right now and despite his world ranking of nine, his talent rivals that of Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz.
Altmaier has kicked it into gear during the clay season. He has gone 13-5, although that includes a Challenger title run on green clay, which holds less value when evaluating red clay. Regardless, he seems to have found his form and will be playing with confidence tomorrow.
These two faced off in this US Open last year. In a match that went five sets, Altmaier – a heavy underdog in August as well – was able to poke holes in the Sinner baseline game. Even though it was a five-set match, Sinner won by nine games, which would have covered the current line of 8.5 games for tomorrow.
Altmaier is much more at home on clay than hard courts. Even though Sinner is a title contender, Altmaier will not be a pushover. The game style he implemented last year caused Sinner problems and I have no reason to think the stylistic matchup will change much this time around. I expect the German to make Sinner answer some questions and I believe we will see him grab a set.
You can take your pick of Altmaier game spread (+8.5), Altmaier to get a set, or the over for the match (31.5), but my personal favorite is trusting Altmaier to grab a set.
Pick: Altmaier to win a set (+105 via DraftKings)
Borna Coric (-265) vs Pedro Cachin (+215)
5 a.m. ET
Coric has stormed back up the rankings, nearing his career high from 2018 before injury. He has looked especially dominant during the last two clay Masters, in Madrid and Rome. However, Coric is an extremely streaky player. Over 60% of his ATP points are from the three tournaments in Cincinnati, Madrid and Rome.
When he is playing at the top of his game, he can compete with the best. But when he isn't, he can lose to anyone. Before the last two Masters, Coric was a measly 7-8 on the year. I believe his few streaky weeks often leave him overvalued in the betting markets.
Cachin has been a sneaky good clay courter this year. He holds some great wins this year and added to it by holding off Dominic Thiem on Monday. He flies under most people's radars but I don't think that will last for long.
Coric is someone I don't trust to cover as a favorite, especially in a Grand Slam. I trust the Argentine to continue making a name for himself and at a minimum keep this match tight. Back the undervalued Cachin in this spot.
Pick: Cachin +5.5 games (-145 via DraftKings)
