It took over 48 hours locked in the lab, but I have finally come up with my first round betting card on both the women's and men's side at the 2019 French Open. It's not easy to comb through 256 matches, but at least the French Open spreads the first round over three days.
Without further ado, let's get into where I'm putting my money — starting with Day 1 and then finishing up with what made the final cut on Monday/Tuesday.
Sunday French Open Bets
My favorite bet on Sunday's card is Johanna Larsson. She should be a much bigger favorite against the clay-averse Magdalena Rybarikova.
Neither is having a great year, but Larsson has so much more clay pedigree. While Rybarikova has never made a clay final, Larsson has won two of the four she appeared in, including her most recent triumph at Nuremberg last year.
The Swede is only 1-5 on the dirt this year, but she lost some tough three set matches. Rybarikova did beat Larsson easily in the 2008 French Open qualifying round, but I put no stock into a win from over a decade ago.
This number is just way too short.
I also played five other matches on Sunday, highlighted by a fade of Angelique Kerber. I also may add Lorenzo Sonego in some fashion as Roger Federer looks vulnerable on clay to me.
Sunday Full Betting Card
- Johanna Larsson -140
- Anastasia Potapova +350
- Laslo Djere -138
- Leonardo Mayer -144
- Ugo Humbert -116
- Malek Jaziri +101
Monday/Tuesday French Open Bets
My favorite bet over the final two days of the first round also comes on the WTA side. I fancy the French 24-year-old Chloe Paquet, who comes off a semifinal appearance on the clay in Strasbourg.
This is also a fade of Magda Linette, who comes into Roland Garros on horrible form. She is just 1-6 on dirt in 2019, including five straight losses ahead of this tourney.
Too much value to pass up on the woman the crowd will be backing.
Elsewhere on the WTA side, I'm looking at a number of other underdogs taking on seeds (Caroline Wozniacki and Julia Goerges among others) with major form and injury concerns. And look out for Karolina Muchova. The girl can play and has done a lot of winning in 2019.
I also think Simona Halep and Naomi Osaka could have a tougher time in the first round than their lines indicates. Look out for the moon balls from Anna-Karolina Schmiedlova, who does have two clay court titles to her name. Osaka is still seeking her first.
I actually don't like much on the ATP side, but couldn't resist fading Pablo Carreno Busta and Sam Querrey. PCB owns an abysmal 0-5 clay record in 2019 and Querrey does not fancy the clay.
Plus, how could I pass up backing a player named Pedro Martinez (Portero) in honor of baseball's GOAT. The clay specialist cruised through the French Open qualifying round and recently made the Lisbon Challenger semis. The American Querrey is in trouble here.
Update: Sam Querrey withdrew, which voided the original Martinez bet. However, I did end up playing him again against Henri Laaksonen.
Monday/Tuesday Full Betting Card
- Chloe Paquet +120
- Kaia Kanepi +107
- Veronika Kudermetova +157
- Karolina Muchova +140
- Marie Bouzkova +185
- Tamara Zidansek +180
- Anna-Karolina Schmiedlova +599/+6.5 games split
- Ajla Tomljanovic +447/+6 games split
- Pedro Martinez Portino +105
- Joao Sousa -103
Note: A split means I'm putting a half unit on the moneyline and the half unit on the games spread.
My card is close to final, but I may have a few adds. Follow me on twitter to stay up to date. Good luck!
