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We've come to the third round of the French Open, and the action is just beginning to heat up.
There are two Russians in action on Friday morning, and without further ado let's get into how to bet Khachanov vs Kokkinakis and Sonego vs Rublev on day 6 at Roland Garros.
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French Open Odds & Picks
Karen Khachanov (-320) vs Thanasi Kokkinakis (+255)
5 a.m. ET
Rarely do I fade Khachanov, who is one of the most consistent players on tour today, but I think Friday's match could be a little tricky for the Russian.
Kokkinakis is getting absolutely no love from the betting public after his second-round win over Stan Wawrinka, and it's a mystery to me as to why. He served well, had the range on his big forehand and finally came through in a pressure service game to end the match. He's proven enough to me where I think he can make this a match with Khachanov.
The Aussie has the game to disrupt Khachanov. He's not a great returner to begin with, so the big-serving Kokkinakis should be able to stay within touching distance at the very least. He's also struggled at the net at times and with his backhand, which are two areas Kokkinakis has excelled. I think this should be a contest decided by serving, but I also do think in baseline exchanges that Kokkinakis should be relatively even with Khachanov, at worst.
With that, I'm seeing value in taking the games here.
Pick: Kokkinakis +5.5 games (-120 via DraftKings)
Lorenzo Sonego (+265) vs Andrey Rublev (-340)
6:30 a.m. ET
There's something to be said for a player finding their form in an instant when entering a court with familiar surroundings, and I think that's what we're witnessing right now with Lorenzo Sonego.
The Italian was battling through a tough clay season with a 2-3 record heading into Rome before he picked up a couple of match wins in front of his home fans and lost a tight one to Stefanos Tsitsipas. He's since grabbed two more wins at Roland Garros over some very talented players in Ugo Humbert and Ben Shelton — a tournament where he nearly upset Casper Ruud in the third round last year.
I think Sonego is playing better tennis than his record would indicate, and I think he's very excited to be back at the French Open where he's had some good results in the past. His losses this spring have been to very good players (Tsitsipas, Jan-Lennard Struff, Cristian Garin, Daniil Medvedev) and he's looked very good through his first two matches here.
Sonego may not be on the level of Rublev, but on a clay court I think these two are much more evenly matched. Rublev is a hair worse on the surface than he is on a hard court, and the Italian a hair better. Sonego took out Rublev in Rome two years ago and though he lost their previous two encounters, he was able to at least cover the spread in both losses. I think he takes a set here at the least and covers the games.
Pick: Sonego +5.5 games (-110 via DraftKings)
