The 2024 French Open should have a different feel on the men's side, with Rafael Nadal likely playing his last match at Roland Garros — which could come as early as the first round — and many of the favorites coming in with discernable question marks.
Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have both battled injuries in the last month, while Novak Djokovic's level has dropped significantly and some of the rising clay players like Casper Ruud and Holger Rune have lacked form.
That should open the draw up considerably, presenting some excellent value up and down the board. With that, let's get into each quarter and relay some actionable information. Here are my French Open predictions for the men's draw.
Note: All odds came from DraftKings. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
French Open Predictions
Quarter 1: Novak Djokovic (-140)
You may be skeptical here given what I've just said about Djokovic's form, but the draw has broken very nicely for the World No. 1. He shouldn't have much in his way until the fourth round, where I'm projecting he'll face Francisco Cerundolo, a player with a boatload of talent but who has fallen under pressure throughout the course of his career. On the other side of this quarter, meanwhile, stand Taylor Fritz and Casper Ruud, two players who have never had much success against Djokovic, even with Ruud's win this year in Monte Carlo.
Djokovic has slogged through clay season for the past few years, and it's never precluded him from success at Roland Garros. He suffered some shocking defeats on clay to Dan Evans and Aslan Karatsev in 2021, and last year fell to Holger Rune, Lorenzo Musetti and Dusan Lajovic, of all people, in the lead-up to the French Open. In both years he wound up finding his form in Paris and winning the tournament.
There aren't a ton of massive obstacles in Djokovic's way, so even with some flat form here I think he can figure it out with some easy matchups early in the tournament and erase all these concerns as he's done over the last three seasons.
Quarter 2: Alexander Zverev +125
I promise, we won't just be betting the favorite in every quarter. Zverev, however, deserves to be a little shorter to win this quarter.
The German is, for my money, the best in the world on this surface at the moment after his impressive win in Rome. He struggled out of the gates this clay season, but he's since proven to be the most reliable option among the favorites as we approach Roland Garros, where he's made the semifinals three straight years.
There shouldn't be any potential landmines here, either. Rune would be the toughest guy he'd have to come through, in theory, but the wunderkind has gone just 6-4 during his 2024 clay campaign with some unsightly losses to Sebastian Baez, Tallon Griekspoor and Jan-Lennard Struff. Given he's still unproven at the Grand Slam level and starved for form, he's either going out early or losing to Zverev.
On the other side of this draw stands Daniil Medvedev, who's had a storied rivalry with the crowds in France and has lost in the first round five times in his seven appearances, most recently dropping his opening match to Thiago Seyboth-Wild last season.
I don't see Medvedev and Rune as real threats here, so the choice is rather easy.
Quarter 3: Felix Auger Aliassime (+2800), Ugo Humbert (+5000)
This is where things get interesting. Alcaraz has missed the last few weeks with an arm injury, and while he does claim to be feeling better he's admitted recently that he's still thinking about it every time he hits a forehand. Given he's had issues with his right arm throughout his career and needs his deadly forehand to win matches, I think he's on upset alert in this quarter.
Jack Draper lurks in this second round here, and given they've played each other extremely closely the two times they've met — one ending on a retirement after a tight first set — I think this could very well be where Alcaraz falls. Draper has all-world talent which he's had a hard time displaying at the slams given his stamina tails off after a few matches, but meeting Alcaraz this early is a dream scenario for the Brit. He's looked good on clay and could easily pull this off, and if he doesn't then Sebastian Korda, who has defeated Alcaraz on clay before, could be waiting in the third round.
That's not where I'm looking, however. I'm much more interested in Auger-Aliassime here given his strong run on clay this season, which has been a bit of throwback to his initial breakthrough years ago which saw him win a large number of matches on dirt. He looks to playing with a lot more feel and confidence, and I'd favor him over a player inexperienced on clay in Ben Shelton or a tired Draper.
In the top half of this quarter, meanwhile, Andrey Rublev could be in trouble as early as the third round when he may face Frenchman Arthur Fils in Paris, which has been a house of horrors for Rublev through the years. It would seem to open things up for Stefanos Tsitsipas, but I think Ugo Humbert, who's been a giant killer over the last few years and owns a 3-1 head-to-head record against Tsitsipas, could find a breakthrough at home in Paris.
I like the value with both of these guys in what I think will be a wacky and wild quarter.
Quarter 4: No Bet
No bet, you say? What about what appears to be splendid value on Jannik Sinner, the best player in the world at the present moment, at -140?
Well, like Alcaraz, Sinner has been missing in action over the last few weeks due to a hip injury. The nature of the injury is apparently serious, even though the Italian claims it shouldn't be a concern over the next two weeks.
I'm looking elsewhere in the outright market as a result, but I don't feel good enough about any of the top names in this quarter to fade Sinner, who has been extremely good this year. This will be more of a wait-and-see approach as we watch for an signs of that hip injury hampering Sinner. If you shook me down for a pick, I guess I'd go with Norrie — who could knock Sinner out here if he's indeed compromised.
Outrights: Djokovic (+330), Zverev (+700)
To me, the choices here isarevery clear. The winner should come out of the top half of the draw with questions abound regarding the health of Alcaraz and Sinner, and if things go as expected it'll be Djokovic and Zverev to battle it out for a spot in the final.
I gave some consideration to Tsitsipas here as well given his track record on clay — particularly at Roland Garros — but I feel as though there are too many under-seeded players with the potential to knock him off. Keep in mind, too, that even though he did make the semis and the final in back-to-back years, he's failed to reach the semifinals in the two years since, losing to Rune and Alcaraz.
Zverev is serving incredibly well and should really welcome the first-round match against Nadal to come into this tournament with immediate focus. Too often we see top 10 players mosey through a few rounds before raising their level to a championship caliber, and this battle should be just what Zverev needs to find the confidence required to get across the finish line in this tournament.
Djokovic is probably my favorite bet just because of his continued reliability in Grand Slams when he hasn't had to face Sinner or Alcaraz, but I think if he does fall here, it's only to Zverev. I don't expect him to see Alcaraz, and in Sinner's case if they do meet in the final it'll be just the second time ever they've played on clay, with Djokovic holding a head-to-head advantage and an edge on a surface has decidedly been Sinner's worst over the years.
