Here are my second round French Open predictions, including Luciano Darderi vs Tallon Griekspoor and Lorenzo Musetti vs Gael Monfils.
Despite the rain, the second round of the French Open continues on Thursday, and these are my two favorite plays.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
French Open Predictions
Luciano Darderi (-140) vs Tallon Griekspoor (+115)
6:15 a.m. ET
Italian tennis is on the rise, and one of the names that should be highlighted for the coming years is Darderi.
The 22-year old is 16-8 on the ATP Tour this season, including capturing a 250-title in Cordoba back in February.
So far in this event, he cruised past Rinky Hijikata in his first-ever Grand Slam match, winning 6-3, 7-6, 6-1 while facing just three break points along the way.
That inexperience is a concern against 27-year old Tallon Griekspoor, but Darderi has certain edges that can counter his unfamiliarity at major tournaments.
First, Darderi has an edge on clay. The Italian is 25th in Elo Rating on the surface while Griekspoor is 42nd. In fact, the Dutch is just 8-13 overall on the surface in his career, including losses to Marton Fucsovics (82) and Francesco Passaro (240) this season.
Also, Darderi has been playing on the surface since late January. He’s competed in 11 clay-court tournaments (!) at both the ATP and Challenger Tour level.
Obviously the clay surfaces differ depending on the tournament (a Challenger event in Uruguay is different than Roland Garros, for example), however the Italian has played just a single hard court event this year.
Griekspoor isn’t exactly a French Open master himself; he’s 0-2 in second-round matches in Paris.
Secondly, while Griekspoor is 13th in Serve Rating on all surfaces across the last 52 weeks, Darderi is one of the best returners on tour during that span (10th in Return Rating, sixth in percentage of break points converted).
Surprisingly, Darderi is also No. 1 on tour in Under Pressure Rating despite his young age, winning 64% of his tiebreakers and 88% of his deciding sets.
Finally, Darderi and Griekspoor have never faced off in their careers. Darderi has the element of surprise, which can surely work in the favor of the lesser-known player.
With the surface, form (Darderi reached the semis in Lyon last week) and statistical edge, I’m going to play the Italian on the short spread.
Pick: Luciano Darderi -1.5 games (-110 via DraftKings)
Lorenzo Musetti (-188) vs Gael Monfils (+155)
2:15 p.m. ET
In a highly-anticipated second-round French Open matchup, Italian Lorenzo Musetti takes on Frenchman Gael Monfils.
Musetti is one of the better clay-court players in the world, owning a 62% winning percentage for his career and an Elo Rating of 15 on the surface.
But this season, the Italian has had major issues — and those issues haven’t just been on the dirt.
He’s 9-14 overall at the ATP level and had lost three straight opening-round matches before his three-set victory over Daniel Elahi Galan in Paris.
And it’s not like Musetti is losing to worldbeaters. The average ranking of his losses is 54 and his best results have been on the Challenger Tour, where he reached two finals in his home country.
His best wins this season came against Taylor Fritz (Monte-Carlo) and Ben Shelton (Miami), and he’s down to 30th in the ATP rankings.
Remember, Musetti is still only 22 years old. He’s going to have pockets of bad spells and poor play, especially as he adjusts to differences in his personal life (he became a father in March).
And if there’s any spot for Musetti to bounce back, it’s here in Paris, where he twice reached the round of 16.
While Musetti’s form is questionable, Monfils hasn’t exactly been superb either. Before defeating Thiago Seyboth Wild in four sets in the first round at Roland Garros, the Frenchman had lost three straight matches, including a disappointing two-set blowout at the hands of Thiago Monteiro.
Monfils has proven time and time again however that he’s capable of being a dangerous factor at the French Open — especially when counted out. Last year, he rallied down 0-4, 30/40 in the fifth set to beat Sebastian Baez. This year he was an underdog against Seyboth Wild before dispatching the Brazilian.
So, what does that mean for my best bet? Well, I think this is going to go over the total. Musetti is finally playing better tennis the last two weeks and this is Monfils’ best shot at a Roland Garros run since 2019.
Neither player has a particularly big serve and rallies from the baseline will likely be drawn out.
Expect a long four setter or a five-set match as these two duke it out for a third-round appearance.
