Here are my French Open predictions, including Nadal vs Zverev and Monfils vs Thiago Seyboth Wild.
The French Open continues on Monday with two of the more anticipated matchups of the first round in Paris.
Let's get into how to bet these matches.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
French Open Predictions
Rafael Nadal (+300) vs Alexander Zverev (-400)
7:30 a.m. ET
Back in 2022, Alexander Zverev was wheeled off the court and forced to retire from his Roland Garros semifinal match vs. Rafael Nadal due to a severe ankle injury.
Two years later, the two are facing off in the first round of the French Open with Zverev fully recovered from the injury and Nadal falling off due to age and injuries.
Zverev is up to No. 4 in the ATP rankings and is listed as one of the favorites to capture the French Open title (+600 at FanDuel). Despite loses to lower-seeded opponents in Madrid (Francisco Cerundolo) and Munich (Cristian Garin), Zverev won a 1000-event in Rome after dropping a single set in six matches.
The German also has had success beyond the clay court this season, reaching the semis in Miami, the quarters in Indian Wells and the semis of the Australian Open.
On the flip side, Nadal has barley played. He’s ranked 275th in the world and is 7-4 on the season, with losses to Jiri Lehecka and Jordan Thompson on his resume. Before Barcelona, the Spaniard played in one tournament in 15 months.
For that reason, it’s hard to see Zverev losing this match. He’s not going to take Nadal lightly, and he surely has been looking forward to this opportunity (the last meeting was neck-and-neck before he went down).
“I wanted to play Rafa again in my career, in his career, because I didn't want my last memory of me playing against Rafa to be me leaving the court in a wheelchair”
"For me, in my mind, I'm going to play peak Rafa Nadal. That's what I expect him to be," Zverev said. "I expect him to be at his absolute best. I expect him to play the best tennis he's played in a long time on this court.”
Obviously, Nadal is an all-time great; he’s 112-3 all-time at Roland Garros and this — potentially — could be his final run at this event. But this is the worst possible matchup for him, as Zverev will dicate play using his serve and strong backhand.
Sure, it would be awesome to see some magic from Nadal — including one last run at the tournament he’s dominated his entire career — but the eye test says differently.
I’m going to put faith in what we currently know about both of these players rather than hope, history or the name recognition of Nadal.
Pick: Alexander Zverev -5.5 games (-120 via bet365)
Gael Monfils (+145) vs Thiago Seyboth Wild (-175)
1:15 p.m. ET
In my mind, the most intriguing match on Monday is this duel between Gael Monfils and Thiago Seyboth Wild.
Monfils will be looking to put on a show for his hometown crowd, while Seyboth Wild had a career-sparking run last year at this same event.
We’ll start with the Frenchman, who hasn’t had a strong clay-court season. Monfils has lost two straight first-round matches (Thiago Monteiro, Luciano Darderi) and has just two total wins on the surface this year.
He did have a nice performance on the hard courts of Indian Wells (beating Cam Norrie and Hubert Hurkacz before taking Casper Ruud to three sets), but it’s been a mostly average campaign for Monfils.
On the flip side, Seyboth Wild made waves in Paris in 2023 after shocking Daniil Medvedev in the opening round on his way to a round of 32 result. The Brazilian hasn’t posted any headline-grabbing results similar to that as of late, but he’s recorded three round of 32 finishes at 1000-events in 2024.
Regardless, I still feel like there’s strong value on Monfils. The Frenchman has been one of the better returners on this surface (15th in Return Rating in the past 52 weeks) and this won’t be a scenario where Monfils is unfamiliar with Seyboth Wild’s game (they played back in 2021).
Plus, Seyboth Wild just withdrew from Lyon last week due to an ankle injury. How much of a factor that will be in this match is unknown, but Monfils’ conditioning and defense will certainly put that to the test early and often.
The crowd will likely also play a factor in this one. Monfils is a showman, and after being forced to withdraw last year after a thrilling win over Sebastian Baez, I expect him to be locked in for this one.
