The business end of the French Open has arrived and we're just seven matches from crowning a champion at Roland Garros. Tuesday has four quarterfinal matches, with the two from the women's draw leading off.
Here are my picks for Coco Gauff vs Ons Jabeur and Iga Swiatek vs Marketa Vondrousova in my French Open quarterfinals picks.
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French Open Quarterfinals Picks
Coco Gauff (-425) vs Ons Jabeur (+320)
5 a.m. ET
Having written a bit about why each of these two women was smart to back in earlier rounds already, I have to say it's nice to see them both here. It means something went right with previous bets.
That said, let's take a look at how the two match up with each other in the quarters. Though Gauff has rolled through her opposition in the first four rounds, we haven't seen anyone play her with the quality of the seemingly back in form Tunisian.
Now, Jabeur hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire, but I would argue her path to this point has been tougher and though she's had the typical erratic play and letdowns leading to some close matches, her opponents have played some strong tennis.
When it comes to style, this is where I think the young American has the advantage. For starters, she's the much fitter player. Secondly, she has elite rally tolerance from the baseline and is one of the best movers and defenders in the game. That negates a lot of the edge Jabeur typically finds in using her dropshot and considering she's an error prone player for stretches, going up a wall like Gauff could be a tough proposition.
I'm not rushing to back Gauff base purely off her dominance in the tournament to this point, but with the stylistic matchup being pretty favorable for her in these slower conditions, I do think you have to trust her to get things done efficiently.
Pick: Under 20.5 games (-120 via DraftKings)
Iga Swiatek (-1400) vs Marketa Vondrousova (+700)
6:30 a.m. ET
Trying to bet Swiatek matches on clay these days is getting tougher and tougher. With the lopsided sets she's capable of putting up, are you really comfortable taking +7 or even +7.5 game spreads? One 6-0 or 6-1 set and that number is done with as little as a single break of serve margin in the other.
That said, it's also tough to lay games with someone like Swiatek who can throw in randomly error prone sets or let her serve be broken once or twice over the course of the match. The bookmakers have tried to make it as expensive as possible to back her to cover themselves, and yet the market often still backs her (and can still win) and knocks the spread up another half to full game.
Considering Vondrousova's game is based on angles, rally tolerance, taking pace out of rallies and constructing points and waiting out mistakes from opponents, I'm not in a spot where I'm looking to fade the world No. 1. That is not the game profile that tends to trouble her and Vondrousova's results against Swiatek have shown she struggled to keep things close. Four of the six sets they've played have been blowout sets for the Pole and the other two went to tiebreaks on quicker courts.
I'll pass on a spread I made -7 near the even money mark. There may be a bit of value in trusting Swiatek, but I tend to think passing here is the smarter move.
Pick: Pass
