After three days and 128 matches across the men's and women's singles draws and we've finally reached the second round of the French Open.
We've got a slew of matches coming over the course of the next few days, and there are plenty that are intriguing from a betting perspective.
Let's jump into the Sloane Stephens vs Varvara Gracheva and Marketa Vondrousova vs Daria Kasatkina matches taking place on Wednesday.
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French Open Round 2 Picks
Sloane Stephens (-160) vs Varvara Gracheva (+135)
8:45 a.m. ET
What an opportunity to back the American here on clay against one of the most overrated players on the surface in the women's game.
Gracheva consistently gets respect that one would expect to see for a top-25 to top-30 player, primarily because of her success this year on hard courts.
Yet on the dirt, we've seen her lose several times as the betting favorite and drop sets in matches she was expected to win in straights by the betting markets. Even last season, the Russian struggled mightily with players she should have dispatched of with ease.
The movement simply doesn't come naturally and her forehand doesn't get nearly as much purchase in slower conditions.
Enter Stephens, who has not only made a final at Roland Garros, but also made it clear after her opening match – a dominant win over Karolina Pliskova – that this is her favorite surface.
She moves well on the clay, has the ability to turn up the aggression, works the ball around the court and isn't rushed into committing unforced errors nearly as much.
The real selling point for me here is that she's also in pretty decent form right now and clearly enjoying herself on the clay. Stephens comes into the French Open with a title at a WTA 125K event in Saint Malo (the type of event she would have struggled with motivation at just a year or two ago) and a semifinal at the 250 in Rabat, Morocco last week.
I'm far more impressed with her clay pedigree, current form and comfort on the surface than Gracheva and will gladly take her to keep progressing through the draw.
Picks: Stephens ML (-160 via FanDuel)
Marketa Vondrousova (-250) vs Daria Kasatkina (+190)
7:15 a.m ET
While many will look at a 2-2 head-to-head in this rivalry (and 1-1 on clay) with plenty of close matches between them, I'm going to back Vondrousova to win this one comfortably.
For starters, they've only played once in the last four years, so I'm not sure just how much relevance three of those meetings have.
Secondly, on slow clay courts both of these women are ultra-consistent, but it's Vondrousova that has a little more to her game for me. She should be able to utilize her lefty serve out wide to pull Kasatkina off court, opening up space for her and allowing her to find ways to win points. She can also work the outer portions of the court from both wings – another tactic that can help her win points for herself.
Kasatkina, by contrast, plays a far more defense-first game. She tracks everything down, hits with plenty of spin to buy herself time, but keeps everything relatively centrally and waits out unforced errors from her opposition.
Considering Vondrousova doesn't gift many of those herself, it's hard to really find a path to victory for the Russian.
Vondrousova has also been ruthless on clay this season, beating players with weapons and those without by margin far more often than not.
I'm not worried about laying the 4.5 games here.
Pick: Vondrousova -4.5 (+105 via Caesars)
