Tuesday brings the opening round of action from the French capital to a close, as the remaining players get their campaigns for the year's second major underway.
Let's take a look at Giovani Mpetshi Perricard vs David Goffin and Tomas Machac vs Nuno Borges in my French Open best bets.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing French Open matches.
French Open Tuesday Best Bets
Tomas Machac (-150) vs Nuno Borges (+126)
5 a.m. ET
I was hoping to find a decent number to fade Machac with off his run in Geneva, and a +130 fits the bill. A few things go into finding a decent fade. First, I've got a competent player who has been in decent form in 2024 in Borges. The Portuguese is comfortable on the clay and we're likely seeing an overvaluation to a run to the final on clay from Machac.
I prefer Machac's game in quicker conditions though. He is a little slap happy and error prone at time and that style with a tad less margin for error isn't exactly rewarded on slow clay courts at sea level. The fact it isn't likely to be warm to give him even an extra mph or two on his serve isn't ideal either.
Then there's the fact that his clay court final came in Geneva, where the air is thinner thanks to the city's elevation, and that was apparent in his service numbers. If he can win 75-80% of first serve points as he did in his first three matches in Switzerland, so be it. I can eat that loss.
I'm going to stake out the position that he won't be ab le to though. That means more prolonged rallies against an opponent with a more sustainable style from the baseline. Coupled with the best-of-five set format meaning redlining one's way to a win is that much more difficult, I think Borges coming in below 45% in implied probabilities is incorrect.
Pick: Borges ML (+126 via FanDuel)
Giovani Mpetshi Perricard (-125) vs David Goffin (+104)
6:30 a.m. ET
It feels like 2024 has been a year of many veteran players taking a step back in terms of their positions on tour, and it's no different for the Belgian. Much like Stan Wawrinka, Andy Murray, Richard Gasquet or even younger veterans like Dominic Thiem, we've seen Goffin take a step back in recent times.
Now outside of the top-100, Goffin seems to be suffering from the same problem that has haunted Gasquet, Thiem and even Murray, with his ability to generate offense lacking in a big way.
That's particularly troublesome on a slower surface like clay, where Goffin has just six wins this year. Four of those? In qualifying draws and in cities with a bit of altitude where the thinner air can help add a bit of pace to his shots (those cities being Marrakech and Geneva). Another came in a Challenger draw and his lone main draw win at the main tour level came against a hard courter in Arthur Rinderknech.
There is absolutely nothing to suggest that he should be priced so closely to the in form Mpetshi Perricard.
Speaking of the young Frenchman, he enters this matchup in fine form, winning the title in Lyon last week. His game may not seem to be the most conducive to success on clay, but his serve and forehand are weapons that can cut through even slower surfaces and his one-handed backhand seems to enjoy having more time on the dirt.
Factor in the matchup advantage he should have when it comes to holding serve with more ease on a regular basis and I'm happy to back the in form player on the rise at a quasi pick 'em price.
Pick: Mpetshi Perricard ML (-125 via FanDuel)
