The final day of Round 1 is upon us, with a few storylines to watch closely. Last week, a pair of American women wrapped up their preparation for the French Open with titles at the two WTA Tour stops. Can they keep it going? Let's delve into each of their opening matches.
Find picks for Peyton Stearns vs Lucija Ciric Bagaric and Madison Keys vs Renata Zarazua in my Tuesday French Open best bets.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing French Open matches.
Tuesday French Open Predictions
Peyton Stearns (-200) vs Lucija Ciric Bagaric (+165)
8:30 a.m. ET
Though some people may be hesitant to back a player off a title in their first match the next tournament, I can't get away from the fact that Peyton Stearns is at least a full game too low on the spread. For those who may not bet tennis all that often, a full game from -3 to -4 or -3.5 to -4.5 is a big one in our space.
Don't get me wrong, this isn't meant as a slight to Lucija Ciric Bagaric, who I actually had coming through her qualifying section last week. She's got a nice clay game, and I was able to do some tape study last year at a 125k event. That said, she still has a way to go before she's at the level of someone like Stearns, who has shown us on a few occasions that she can translate her big hitting, aggressive game style to the dirt. She's made a pair of finals on the surface now, including last week's title in Rabat.
She has the bigger weapons, already has a greater pedigree and the talent gap is far too large for what amounts to a one break of serve spread.
I'm happy to back her and eat the loss if necessary. Mistakes like this aren't exactly commonplace at grand slams, and it's why sometimes looking to the non-marquee matchups can provide some of the best value on the board.
Pick: Stearns -3.5 (-105 via DraftKings)
Madison Keys (-910) vs Renata Zarazua (+550)
9:00 a.m. ET
Despite being such a large favorite on the moneyline, somehow the total here sits at 19. That is perplexing to me, as I make this closer to a 17.5 or 18 for several reasons.
First off, there's the fact that Madison Keys is a top tier WTA competitor and Renata Zarazua isn't remotely close. Secondly, we have a gargantuan discrepancy in power that favors Keys. While that may not be as important on clay, players like Keys, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina have the kind of power that translates anywhere, including Roland Garros. Just ask her opponents from a week ago in Strasbourg.
This means that thinking in terms of likelihoods, the vast amount of pressure on return should be generated by Keys, making her far more likely to find breaks of serve. That leads me to my final point.
Lopsided sets are our friend when we are looking at hitting unders in the 17-19.5 game range. Since the start of Rome, Keys has posted eight sets of 6-2 or better in eight matches. Eliminate her tilt with clay legend Iga Swiatek (yes, she's already a legend) and it's eight in seven matches played.
I rarely go large on unders, but this is one spot where I'll make an exception. I think splitting one's stake between the under and the -5.5 games market may also be a wise idea. Either way, back the in-form Keys to continue her hot streak against one of the more beatable players she's come up against in recent weeks.
Picks: Keys -5.5 games (-138 via Bet365) | Under 19.5 Games (-138 via Bet365)
