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We've reached the third round of the French Open, but the action is just beginning to heat up. There are two big tournament favorites in action on Friday, and I don't think it'll be smooth sailing for either.
Let's get into how to bet Djokovic vs Davidovich Fokina and Alcaraz vs Shapovalov on day 7 at Roland Garros.
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Novak Djokovic (-900) vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (+550)
8:45 a.m. ET
Novak Djokovic is confusing me right now. He's failed to serve out his first two matches here at Roland Garros despite winning them both in straight sets, and this oddly flat level follows what's been a very disappointing clay season. Djokovic entered the tournament with a 5-3 record on clay, and the losses weren't even all to amazing competition. On top of that, he was sporting an elbow sleeve and saw a drop in his average forehand speeds. Something is a little off.
Enter Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who famously took out Djokovic last year at the Monte Carlo Masters. It was a shocking result — and Djokovic has historically had some pretty shocking upsets at Monte Carlo — but it's one which the young Spaniard will have in his mind as he hits Court Philippe Chatrier on Friday.
Davidovch Fokina is a very talented clay-court player who's been held back by inconsistent play and unwise shot selections. One thing we can say, though, is that he generally shows up to big matches. He nearly took out Matteo Berrettini at the US Open last year and has previously made the quarterfinal here at the French Open in 2021. He stepped to a very dangerous Arthur Fils in front of a hostile crowd in the first round and won rather easily, then did the same against another young Frenchman in Luca Van Assche in the second round. He loves the occasion, and he should bring his best level to this one.
I think this will be the first — and maybe only — tough match Djokovic has en route to the semifinals. Given what we've seen, this won't be a clean match by any means.
Pick: Davidovich Fokina +2.5 sets (-125 via DraftKings)
Carlos Alcaraz (-3500) vs Denis Shapovalov (+1200)
2:15 p.m. ET
Don't look now, but Denis Shapovalov is heating up in a hurry. The Canadian missed most of clay season with a knee injury, and he has battled injury for much of the season to this point. All he's done here at Roland Garros — a tournament he entered as a first-round underdog — is bring an extraordinary level against two tough opponents and remind us of the talent he has.
This is a very, very dangerous matchup for Carlos Alcaraz. He thrives against more passive opponents where he can quickly take charge of rallies and be the aggressor. The few players who have been able to really bother him are ones who go for slim margins and stay on the front foot — like Jannik Sinner. There aren't many who hit it harder and play more aggressively than Shapovalov.
His wins over Brandon Nakashima and Matteo Arnaldi were no joke, and I think they will give him the confidence necessary to put on a thriller here with Alcaraz. Shapovalov has long been a confidence-driven player who has really only been able to make full use of his weapons when he's been in the right state of mind, and it'd be hard to find a match this season he's come into with more positive momentum than this one.
Shapovalov has played — and defeated — some of the best in the world. He understands what he's up against here, and he's proven himself under the bright lights. He will win a set in this match, and he may even win.
Pick: Shapovalov +2.5 sets (+180 via DraftKings)
