Bring on the final 32 at the US Open! Friday sees the third round of action from the US Open get underway, with some of the best in the women's game taking the court.
Here are my bets forand Sabalenka vs Alexandrova and Keys vs Mertens in my US Open picks from the women's draw at the US Open tennis tournament.
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US Open Picks
Aryna Sabalenka (-1000) vs Ekaterina Alexandrova (+600)
9 p.m. ET
As much as Sabalenka is back on track after winning Cincinnati and flying through two rounds in New York, I think having her at -1000 is a bit extreme. Nothing against Priscilla Hon and Lucia Bronzetti, but they're not close to the same caliber of player that Alexandrova is on a hard court.
There's no doubt in my mind that Sabalenka is the favorite to win the tournament, but a 90% chance against a natural hard courter that enjoys playing with pace and can hang with some of the better women on tour gives us an opportunity to try and make some money. Not by fading Sabalenka on the moneyline, but by looking at other markets (which are correlated to said moneyline).
I'm going to shorten the finish line here for our underdog and look to bet the first set over 9.5 games. That gives us room to potentially lose the set by a break of serve and still cash. It also has an implied probability of under 40%. If Alexandrova can keep things close for one set before Sabalenka takes over, we make a tidy profit on this wager. Best of all, hitting something like 40% of the time over the long run is a profitable position to stake out.
Pick: 1st set over 9.5 games (+163 via bet365)
Madison Keys (-250) vs Elise Mertens (+200)
7 p.m. ET
I'm a sucker for betting on the big-hitting American. I've watched more Keys 50/1 tickets at Grand Slams go up in smoke in the quarters and semis than I care to admit. In today's game, I truly believe she's one of the best players to never hoist the trophy at one of the sport's marquee tournaments.
She's also the exact kind of player that has given Mertens fits over the years. Big server, huge power and top-of-the-women's-game type talent.
Mertens is also having a quasi down season and even last round when I faded her with Ajla Tomljanovic she played a solid match, but wasn't overwhelming despite the scoreline. It ultimately came down to 29 unforced errors from the Aussie in a straight sets match featuring just 17 games.
Keys has obviously battled injuries on and off for a while now, but I make her a 4.5-game favorite in this contest and so a juiced 3.5 offers plenty of value and if your book offers a -4, I'd take that as well.
Pick: Keys -3.5 games (-120 via bet365)
