The business end of The Championships at Wimbledon from the All England Club is fast approaching. Friday will send the first set of players into the second week of the world's most famous tennis tournament.
Here are my bets for Alcaraz – Tiafoe and Humbert – Nakashima in my Friday Wimbledon predictions.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing Wimbledon matches.
Wimbledon Odds & Wimbledon Picks
Carlos Alcaraz (-1600) vs Frances Tiafoe (+1000)
8:30 a.m. ET
The 2024 season hasn't been kind to Tiafoe, but he finally showed glimpses of his potential in the final two sets against Borna Coric last round. It came on the heels of calling some of his fellow players on tour clowns when giving an interview about his struggles and the frustrations that come with them.
Whether he was eager to ensure he didn't look bad for making those comments or he has a newfound desire to dig in and push his way back into the game's elite, I don't care.
I know he has the game to stick with Alcaraz. Some will point to the US Open a few years ago, but I don't want to rely on that; after all, Alcaraz is a much more complete player now than he was then.
I want to look at the game Tiafoe plays. He gets around the court superbly. He can hit on the run with just about anyone. He has a big serve, strong forehand, can dictate play and keep his opponents on their heels.
All these things are important when playing one of the best players in the world.
Then there's the defending champion. Though he won the title in 2023, I still think if you're going to close the gap on him and keep things close, this is the surface to do it on. Alcaraz's serve isn't infallible and when the court is a bit quicker, his opponents can find a few more cheap points and alleviate some of the pressure he tends to put on their service games.
I'm in no way saying Tiafoe wins this even a quarter of the time, but having him sub-10% seems a bit too harsh.
Pick: Tiafoe +2.5 sets (+105 via DraftKings) | Over 33.5 games (-112 via BetRivers)
Ugo Humbert (-138) vs Brandon Nakashima (+110)
6 a.m. ET
What a bounce back year Nakashima is having. After falling out of the top 100 following a very poor 2023, the American has built his ranking back up to the point of being well inside the world's top 75.
It's no secret that Nakashima prefers quicker courts and while he's not the most powerful player on the planet, he racks up holds of serve with impressive regularity and hits a pretty flat ball. Thus, he obviously prefers quicker courts.
It's also no secret that those who tend to beat him tend to hit a bigger ball. Humbert falls into that category.
Now, there's also the fact that Humbert has looked awful in recent times, even on grass courts that suit his big serving, big hitting, low margin style. He hasn't been able to string together two really impressive sets other than last round against a putrid Botic van de Zandschulp in a while. He looked terrific to start against Arthur Fils in the Netherlands and then looked plain thereafter. It was the reverse against Gijs Brouwer and then in London at Queen's Club he was all over the place in terms of quality against Matteo Arnaldi.
The point is, he's been playing erratic tennis and even the courts that reward shorter points haven't really been able to mask it.
I think when we evaluate form, style and matchup each man has something going for him and a path to victory. I simply think Nakashima checks a few more boxes than his French counterpart at the moment and will gladly take plus money to back him.
Pick: Nakashima ML (+110 via bet365)
