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Holger Rune vs. Hugo Gaston Odds
| Rune Odds | -350 |
| Gaston Odds | +270 |
| Total | 34.5 (-105 / -115) |
| Time | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| Odds via DraftKings. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here. | |
The last match on Court Philippe-Chatrier on Saturday is going to be a fun one as it pits up-and-coming Holger Rune against a rising French star in Hugo Gaston.
Rune has cruised to the third round, but this match may not be so straightforward. Let's break it down.
Holger Rune
Rune had never won a Grand Slam match until this week. He stepped on the dirt as a slight underdog in the first round and took down Denis Shapovalov. He then turned around and took care of Henri Laaksonen as a large favorite.
Now, we're made to believe that Rune has an implied 77.8% chance of winning against a guy who is two-and-a-half years older than him and who has been to the Round of 16 here at Roland Garros before.
Those are lofty expectations for a 19-year-old, no matter how talented. Rune, Lorenzo Musetti and Jannik Sinner all burst on the scene with some main-draw success at the age of 18 or 19 and all of them have also had some serious struggles immediately after — particularly in Grand Slams. The success Carlos Alcaraz has had — and sustained — is out of the ordinary and it should not dictate how oddsmakers view teenagers on the ATP Tour.
All of that aside, Rune has never played a week of best-of-five tennis, let alone two weeks of it. There has to be a limit to how much he can play before the errors which have plagued him for most of the season come back out of his racquet.
Hugo Gaston
Gaston has had some moments of brilliance in the past couple years and he's still just 21. He went to the fourth round of the French Open just two years ago, during which he took out Stan Wawrinka in a monumental third-round upset.
The story remains the same with this kid. He has a spectacular drop shot he will use throughout matches and he is an incredible defender. Up against one of the best defenders in the world in Alex De Minaur in the first round, he went blow for blow with him and even looked to be the stronger of the two flying across the court to chase down balls.
The issue with Gaston is that he's been very bad this year. Aside from a run to the third round in Miami, he'd produced just five wins in 18 matches.
If you can ignore that and simply look to the French Open, there's certainly hope for Gaston. He's played well enough in the past two matches, has a good track record on tour and will have a raucous crowd behind him.
Betting Value
In theory, Gaston is the perfect foil for Rune because he will be able to get the teenager's big forehands back into play, making him hit extra ball after extra ball. We know Rune to be an inconsistent player from the back of the court. He is prone to make errors, particularly as matches wear on, so this should give Gaston the upper hand.
Also helping the cause here is the fact that essentially everyone attending the French Open on Saturday will be watching Rune and Gaston, seeing as it's the last match on center court. French crowds have lifted Gaston to his greatest moments and one could be on the horizon here.
I'm going to bet on the over with the thought that this match goes at least four sets and I'll also take out a bet on Gaston to win this match outright considering how Rune's body has given out on him late in long matches in the past.
Pick: Over 34.5 Games, Gaston +260
