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Iga Swiatek vs. Danielle Collins
| Swiatek Odds | -148 |
| Collins Odds | +126 |
| Over/Under | 22.5 |
| Time | TV | 4:45 a.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via FanDuel. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here. | |
In the second semifinal of the Australian Open, American Danielle Collins will take on the world number nine Iga Swiatek.
Each player has come back from a set down twice in the tournament, battling well to stay alive and get through difficult matches. To reach the final four, Collins beat Alize Cornet while Swiatek beat Kaia Kanepi.
The latter match was interesting to watch unfold, as Swiatek fought through a woeful serving performance. She hit five aces compared to 12 double faults but showed some impressive composure to get out of a second set in which she was broken twice and looked to be uncomfortable with Kanepi's deep groundstrokes.
Swiatek adjusted well in the third set, making the smart decision to take some pace off of her first serve to ease the pressure and trust her ground game. It's crucial for Swiatek to let her strokes dictate her game, as she's one of the most solid ball-strikers on Tour. The match point wasn't half bad, either.
WHAT A RALLY 😳pic.twitter.com/e4nfjvvAzd
— Action Network Tennis (@ActionNetTennis) January 26, 2022
Unfortunately for her, she'll have to deal with another consistent ball-striker in Collins, who is now in her second Australian Open semifinal. The first came in 2019, and it's clear the she favors the fast hard court conditions in Melbourne, given she's gotten past the third round only once at the other three Slams.
Collins has had up-and-down periods in the tournament. She was largely consistent in matches against Caroline Dolehide and Ana Konjuh at the start of the Open, but she saw a stark dip in form about halfway through the first set of her third round match with the talented Clara Tauson.
It was there that Collins couldn't hit through the Dane and began to fall into a bit of a serving rut, much like Swiatek. She finished with a 57 percent First Serve Rate, nine double faults and just four aces. But Collins was clutch when it mattered, despite Tauson stepping up and saving match points in incredible fashion.
From there, Collins overcame another poor serving effort and got by the ever-steady Elise Mertens to reach a quarterfinal bout with Cornet. Collins handled that match well and had a one-plus ace-to-double fault ratio, a good sign for her chances moving forward.
Collins and Swiatek have very similar hard court Elo ratings, with Swiatek holding a slight five-point advantage. That tells you how tight this matchup is on paper. On clay, or in slower conditions, the balance would certainly shift to Swiatek, but in Melbourne that is not the case.
The chance to play for a Slam final will be fascinating to watch unfold, but I do feel as though Swiatek has the slight edge.
Betting Value
As I mentioned, I give the marginal edge to Swiatek.
I was incredibly impressed with her resolve against a frustrating player like Kanepi, and that could be a key piece of experience to take into this matchup. Collins can be one of the most tricky players to play on Tour, and she fights as well as anyone, but Swiatek knows she can deal with the challenge of that type of player, even on her non-preferred surface type.
On a tactical level, Collins should aim to take advantage of backhand-to-backhand rallies, where she could have a bit more patience and resiliency to hang in those situations and coax errors out of Swiatek, who has shown she can be prone to them at times.
Swiatek has the biggest shot on court in her forehand, and if both serve well, she also has the slight edge there. That's a big if, however, as each has dealt with major serving problems throughout the event.
That could play a big role in this semifinal, but it's hard to discern the level of serve that each will bring. All in all, it makes the over an appealing look, but at a juiced 21.5, I don't think I would play that over Swiatek.
I'm going to trust one of the most exciting young stars on the women's side of the game to show her pedigree once again and reach a hard court Slam final, even at a hefty price. Collins is just a bit passive for a steady version of Swiatek, and I think that will show.
Pick: Iga Swiatek -148
