Swiatek vs Paolini Odds
| Swiatek Odds | -2000 |
| Paolini Odds | +980 |
| Over/Under | 17.5 (-104 / -130) |
| Time | How to Watch | Saturday, 9 a.m. ET | NBC |
| Odds via DraftKings. For tips on how to watch the French Open, click here. | |
We've reached the end of the road at the French Open, as Iga Swiatek will compete for another Roland Garros title, this time against Jasmine Paolini, a Cinderella story in the true sense of the term.
Paolini has defeated the odds to get to this point in the event, overcoming players such as Elena Rybakina and Mirra Andreeva and displaying some world class tennis in the process.
Action Network's tennis analysts are here to deliver their analysis for Swiatek vs Paolini and their French Open final picks.
Swiatek vs Paolini Predictions
David Gertler: Under 17.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
Iga Swiatek took care of Coco Gauff once again, this time beating her 6-2, 6-4 to reach the final. Swiatek’s heavy forehand and point construction, specifically her ability to target Gauff’s weak forehand, were too much for the American to overcome.
Jasmine Paolini defeated Mirra Andreeva 6-3, 6-1 to advance to the final. In both players’ first Slam semifinal, Paolini handled the occasion much better, showcasing more refined offensive tennis, balancing offense and defense well and allowing the nervous Russian to self-destruct.
However, a Slam final is a different beast, especially on clay against a three-time Roland Garros champion, including last season, in Swiatek.
And, after her second-round scare against Naomi Osaka, in which Swiatek saved a match point in her victory, Swiatek has dropped just 14 games across her last four matches.
Sure, Paolini has added some potent offense to her game, especially from her forehand wing. And she’s still a strong defender, moving well and doing a good job of neutralizing her opponents’ attacking groundstrokes.
But Swiatek can do everything that Paolini does while having a stronger serve and heavier, more powerful groundstrokes. Unlike against Andreeva, Paolini won’t be able to be as proactive, instead reacting to Swiatek’s game.
And Swiatek’s forehand, the strongest shot on the court, should dictate baseline play, effectively targeting Paolini’s backhand, the weakest shot on the court.
There’s a reason that Swiatek’s overall Elo rating is 379.4 points higher than Paolini’s and her clay Elo is 439.1 points above the Italian’s.
And that’s not to mention the difference in experience at this stage between the two players.
This should be a mismatch.
Jon Reid: It's not exactly the match we expected at the outset of the tournament, but as I wrote in the semifinal previews, that last match for Jasmine Paolini did feel like a very close one and she made it look easy in the end.
The task is obviously much tougher this time around, and though Iga Swiatek doesn't really need a matchup advantage on the red clay courts, where her topspin absolutely dominates her opposition more often than not, she should enjoy this matchup with the Italian.
Paolini has a fairly balanced game, mixing the ability to unload from the forehand side with her incredible rally tolerance, but the latter simply won't do as the spin from the Swiatek forehand pushes her further and further behind the baseline, while her power can lead to erratic play — something that should only be exacerbated by the topspin that makes the Swiatek ball so tough to attack.
It may seem fairly boring, but there's absolutely no reason to believe this one should be close. Paolini doesn't have the power on serve to find cheap points, commits too many errors when playing front foot tennis from the baseline against the type of game Swiatek employs and has never managed to keep things close with the world No. 1 in the past.
I'll pass at the current numbers on offer, but I certainly won't be fading the best clay player women's tennis has probably ever seen.
