Sinner vs Safiullin Odds
| Sinner Odds | -650 |
| Safiullin Odds | +475 |
| Over/Under | 35.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Time | How to Watch | Tuesday, 9:15 a.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via DraftKings. For tips on how to watch the Wimbledon, click here. | |
Tennis fans all around the world are eagerly awaiting a Wimbledon rematch between Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic in the semifinals this year, but Sinner's opponent on Tuesday may have something to say about the matter.
Roman Safiullin has stunned a number of great grass-court players and there's no reason why he can't knock off yet another.
Let's get into how to bet on Jannik Sinner vs Roman Safiullin in the Wimbledon quarterfinals.
Sinner Unproven at Slam QF Stage
The 21-year-old will play in his second Wimbledon quarterfinal in as many years on Tuesday. He entered his 2022 match as a massive underdog to Novak Djokovic and will play on Tuesday as a heavy favorite.
His run to this point has been rather uneventful. He took out some weak opponents in Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Diego Schwartzman in straight sets to reach the third round, where he dropped the first set to Quentin Halys and roared back to win in four. He then failed to cover the spread as an 8.5-game favorite against clay specialist Daniel Galan, looking weary on serve before ultimately closing in three sets.
To this point, Sinner has been relatively untested. That's unlike most other Grand Slams he's contested over the last couple of years.
The Italian has a habit of making a meal out of his matches at this stage. Just a month ago he was upset in the second round of the French Open by Daniel Altmaier, and earlier this year at the Australian Open he had to come from two sets down to beat Marton Fucsovics.
Then, there was the US Open last year. Who could forget Sinner going five with Altmaier in the first round as a -3000 favorite, dropping a set to Brandon Nakashima and going five with Ilya Ivashka? He also failed to cover against Chris Eubanks in the second round, a result which may not sound all that bad given the American's excellent week here at Wimbledon but which was absolutely bad at the time.
The bottom line here is that while Sinner possesses more talent than almost everyone on tour, he's had trouble dominating at the slams. While he's done a decent job of winning matches he should win, no upset would really surprise you.
Safiullin Playing at His Highest Level
It took around nine years, but Safiullin is finally winning on grass.
The Russian didn't play a grass-court match until 2021, given the state of his ranking for the early years of his career, and even when he did he was far too new to playing on turf to make an immediate impact. He split four qualifying matches in two years before turning it on in 2023.
Safiullin has gone 9-3 on grass this summer, counting the four qualifying matches he won to make the main draw in Halle and Mallorca. He's beaten something of a murderer's row to get to the Wimbledon quarters, too.
The 25-year-old has defeated two former semifinalists through four matches here in the form of Roberto Bautista Agut and Denis Shapovalov, and he knocked off a former quarterfinalist when he defeated Guido Pella in the third round. His second-round win over Corentin Moutet was also impressive, considering the way the Frenchman had been playing on grass.
Safiullin, for the unfamiliar, isn't a very technical player. He hits the ball very hard, both on his serve and forehand wings. He's kind of like Lloyd Harris — a player who has lacked the mental fortitude and shot selection to achieve big things on tour. The last couple of seaosns have been a bit kinder to him, however; he has won three titles at the ATP Challenger in the past calendar year.
Sinner vs Safiullin Pick
These two met back at the ATP Cup last year in what was a hotly-contested match. Safiullin was able to bring about 12 break points, only converting one of them. Sinner broke the Russian twice in five tries, ultimately taking the match 7-6, 6-3.
So, considering that one was decided by just one break this current line doesn't seem right to me. Safiullin has only grown in confidence since then considering the caliber of opponents he's beaten at Wimbledon, and it just may be that grass is his most effective surface. Safiullin has been serving his opponents off the court and should make for a tough man to break in this encounter.
Given the fact that Sinner's had the tendency to play down to his opponents through the years and hasn't exactly had straightforward wins at the slams, backing the underdog here would be a smart decision. Though I think both the game spread and the over will both ultimately cash, I'm going to side with the game spread here with the slightest bit of skepticism that Safiullin will be able to successfully close out a set.
Pick: Safiullin +6.5 games (-115)
