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The third round of Wimbledon continues on Saturday with a great slate of matches, and I've picked out two underdogs who are in great spots for an upset.
Let's get into how to bet Lehecka vs Paul and Medvedev vs Fucsovics.
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July 8th Wimbledon Odds & Picks
Jiri Lehecka (+100) vs Tommy Paul (-120)
6 a.m. ET
Tommy Paul may rank 15th in the world, but he certainly hasn't played like it this year. The American is 25-14 on the year, and while that certainly doesn't sound bad it's far from being one of the world's best. He also started hot on the hard courts and comes into this match 13-9 in his last 22 matches.
Paul has certainly figured out how to play on grass with a 15-7 record in the last two seasons, but there's been a common theme in his losses. As someone who loves to play from the back of the court, he's struggled with big power players. His three losses this year on grass came to Francisco Cerundolo (twice) and Jan-Lennard Struff, both of whom smoke the ball off the forehand wing and have a huge serve. In the second round, he struggled with the pace of Milos Raonic in a narrow four-set escape.
I'm far from Jiri Lehecka's biggest fan, but if there's one thing we can say about him it's that he hits the ball hard. That pop helped him reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open and defeat the likes of Felix Auger-Aliassime and Cam Norrie along the way. He's also managed to beat some quality grass-court opponents through just six grass matches, taking down Cerundolo and the tricky Sebastian Ofner here at Wimbledon and knocking off Marcos Giron and Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina in recent weeks.
Lehecka should make life uncomfortable here for Paul, who likely wouldn't enter this match as the favorite if not for his name value. I think the 21-year-old should be the slight favorite here, opening up some value.
Pick: Lehecka ML (+100)
Daniil Medvedev (-425) vs Marton Fucsovics (+320)
8 a.m. ET
It's becoming clear this summer that Daniil Medvedev simply isn't his dominant self on a grass court. Sure, he's still a good grass-court player but the intimidation factor is simply not there when he's not playing on a hard court. Medvedev has won under 50% of the points he's played on his second serve through two matches, a number that is simply staggering for a player of his caliber.
Fucsovics, meanwhile, looks right at home on grass. He's now 7-1 on the surface this year if you include his two wins in qualifying for Stuttgart, and there he beat the likes of Denis Shapovalov, Yibing Wu and Taylor Fritz — all three of which pack a serious punch on grass.
He is an excellent lawn tennis player with the ability to win points behind his first serve and win at the net. He came forward a whopping 50 times in his second-round win over Giron and has won over 70% of points at the net through two matches. The Hungarian has all the tools to disrupt Medvedev here and also should enter with the confidence he can win this match.
Though he trails 2-1 in the head-to-head at the ATP level, Fucsovics was able to break the mighty Medvedev serve in each match and covered the game spread in two of those three matches.
Medvedev simply doesn't look 100% comfortable in the long rallies and I think the imagination and volleying of Fucsovics coupled with some confident play should earn him the cover here.
Pick: Fucsovics +5.5 games (-120 via PointsBet)
