Musetti vs Fritz Odds, Musetti – Fritz Picks
| Musetti Odds | +320 |
| Fritz Odds | -425 |
| Over/Under | 38.5 (-115 / -110) |
| Date | Wednesday, 7/10 |
| Time | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN |
| Odds as of Tuesday afternoon via DraftKings | |
Our first Wimbledon quarterfinal of the day on the men's side will see Taylor Fritz look to avenge his defeat to Rafael Nadal at this stage of the 2022 tournament when he takes on Italian Lorenzo Musetti.
The American is once again playing inspired tennis on the grass this season, the surface which brought him to the winner's circle at the ATP level for the very first time five years ago. Now, with the men's draw in a state of flux, he has a golden opportunity to achieve a career-best finish at a Grand Slam.
Musetti, who recently topped Fritz on the clay in Monte Carlo just a couple of months ago, will be a formidable challenge standing in his way given the way he's looked this season on grass.
Will Fritz take care of business on Wednesday? Let's get further into the Wimbledon quarterfinal below.
Here is my Musetti vs Fritz preview along with my Musetti – Fritz pick.
Lorenzo Musetti
The rising Italians have all displayed a knack for grass-court tennis over the past few seasons, but Musetti was a forgotten man when we reached this stage of the tennis calendar. He lost the first four matches of his career on grass from 2021-22, dropping one in straight sets to Fritz two years ago at Wimbledon, before finally showing some signs of life with a 6-3 record on grass last year.
This season has been a continued step in the right direction. His record on the surface stands at 11-2 as we approach the Wimbledon quarterfinals, and it's taken him past the likes of Alexander Bublik and Alex de Minaur. Here at the championships, however, his draw has broken incredibly well with a plethora of inexperienced or grass-averse players in his way.
Despite the easy road, Musetti has dropped a set in each match here at Wimbledon, going five sets with Luciano Darderi in the second round and dropping the first set of his fourth-round match to Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard.
Musetti's game should theoretically work on this surface given his expert backhand slice and rather large serve, which he can piece together with a flat, powerful one-handed backhand. The unfortunate news is that his forehand is an even more glaring weakness on grass as he lacks pace and hits it with too much spin.
Taylor Fritz
The American may have had a bit of a backward stumble last year on grass with just three wins in seven matches, but he's looked the part of a weapon on the surface this year. It marked the first losing season on grass for Fritz since he broke out in 2019 to win Eastbourne, claiming his first ATP title with a win over Sam Querrey in the final, so it's not as if the struggles last year were overly concerning to begin with.
All Fritz has done this year is go 10-1 on grass, repeating at Eastborune for a third time and moving past two quality opponents in Alejandro Tabilo and Alexander Zverev here at Wimbledon to make his second ever quarterfinal at this tournament.
It was at this stage that he fell to an injured Nadal in 2022 as Fritz failed to capitalize while leading two sets to one as he flailed miserably in a deciding tiebreak. This will be the fourth quarterfinal he's ever contested at a Grand Slam, and while he's lost his previous three, this will be the first time he hasn't had to go up against Nadal or Novak Djokovic.
Musetti – Fritz Pick
Despite the loss in Monte Carlo a couple of months ago, Fritz has taken Musetti out twice in three career meetings to control the head-to-head. The first time they met, Fritz put together a neat and tidy win in three sets at Wimbledon two years ago, and he'd later take down Musetti at the Davis Cup months later on a slick indoor hardcourt.
Fritz should be able to use the pace to his advantage here considering the shortcomings of Musetti on the forehand wing and his sometimes questionable returning. Musetti doesn't play with enough pace to dominate on these courts, and even at the Davis Cup, Musetti struggled to get the ball through Fritz from the back of the court. He also failed to produce a break in that match.
Yes, Musetti may be able to offer a bit more at the net and should attempt plenty of drop shots here, but Fritz has grown by leaps and bounds in that area and looks to be ready for anything that Musetti throws at him. I'm expecting a dominant showing and will back Under 39.5 Games as a result.
