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Marin Cilic vs. Daniil Medvedev Odds
| Cilic Odds | +250 |
| Medvedev Odds | -320 |
| Total | 35.5 (-115 / -105) |
| Time | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| Odds via DraftKings. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here. | |
Daniil Medvedev has convinced the world that he can play on clay with three convincing wins here at Roland Garros, but now he faces a tough test in the fourth round.
Marin Cilic, like his opponent, has breezed to this stage in the tournament with convincing wins over Gilles Simon and Marton Fucsovics. Cilic hopes he can pick up where he left off the last time he faced Medvedev on tour — when he took him to five sets last year at Wimbledon.
How does this one play out? Let's discuss below.
Marin Cilic
Let's get this out of the way early: Cilic has never beaten Medvedev in three meetings. That's not the end of the article, however, and it's certainly doesn't mean this match won't be a close one.
All three of those encounters were relatively close. Medvedev won 6-4, 7-6 at the Citi Open in 2019 in a match that could have easily gone three with a lengthy second-set tiebreak. Cilic took a 2-0 lead on Medvedev at Wimbledon last year before the Russian ultimately won the next three sets to take the match. They met at the Davis cup later that year and again played a long first-set tiebreak before Cilic faded in the second.
The Croat is incredibly experienced and has piled up a much better clay-court resume than his opponent. He's twice made the quarterfinals at Roland Garros and will be making his sixth appearance in the Round of 16 on Monday. While his big booming serve and forehand are much better served on a hardcourt, Cilic has proven to be an incredibly tough out on clay and has cruised to a 7-4 record on the surface this season.
Daniil Medvedev
Medvedev is always a hard guy to read, but this version is especially hard to crack. He's never been one to love playing on clay, entering the season with a 5-5 clay-court record in the past two years, and it makes perfect sense given his play style.
The Russian is an incredible defender and wears opponents down with flat groundstrokes through the back of the court and that's simply not a factor on clay. You need to put topspin on the ball to get a kick off the dirt and you also don't need to be a good defender to win matches because the speed of the surface allows for plenty of time to hit balls.
Medvedev seems to have adapted his game a bit in Paris with some high, looping forehands, but just because he beat some inexperienced players doesn't mean he's ready for this kind of test. There is a reason that Medvedev was a massive underdog to win this quarter before the tournament and while he may be making some strides this week, I'll need to see him prove it against a top-notch player like Cilic.
Betting Value
Cilic is going to get free points off of his serve — it's inevitable. Medvedev is going to do the same. The two are going to play an incredibly tense and close match, which is why I feel the spread is the play here.
I expect experience to shine through here for Cilic, who has proven himself to be a good clay-court player. I can't say the same for Medvedev, whose great moments on clay are simply few and far between. I'm not saying he can't get there, but it seems he's experimenting with a multitude of things this week and playing a former Grand Slam champion in the fourth round at Roland Garros is not a great time to be testing new stuff out.
Many have been putting Medvedev on upset alert all week, but they've stopped short of doing it here. Why not? Cilic is an excellent tennis player who's had a pretty great eight months all things considered and he's not going to go away very easily.
Pick: Cilic +5.5, Cilic +250
