We got some nice cashes in the last article, as Marco Cecchinato came through as a nice plus-money winner in straight sets and Bernabe Zapata Miralles started late, but finished in dominant fashion to cruise to a straight sets win of his own.
The second week of the Masters event in Rome is upon us, and the men are set to finish up the third round on Monday. Let's delve into a pair of matchups, including the one featuring one of the best players of 2023 in Daniil Medvedev.
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ATP Rome Picks & Predictions
Daniil Medvedev (-455) vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles (+320)
8:00 a.m. ET
We start with a matchup of two guys that overcame a 0-3 deficit to start their matches in the second round and ended up cruising to victory, as the world No. 3 takes on Zapata Miralles.
Medvedev's match with Emil Ruusuvuori actually saw the market come in heavily behind his Finnish opponent, as his spread opened in the -4.5-game range and closed at -3.5. That movement is the tennis equivalent to crossing through key numbers in NFL betting.
Why? In all likelihood it's because Medvedev had never won a match in Rome prior to that victory.
He despises the conditions in the Italian capital, with slow courts eating up the pace on his serve and taking away one of his biggest edges over the competition. The bounces aren't to his liking either, and that was apparent in his previous appearances where he lost to the likes of Robin Haase and Nick Kyrgios (another guy that isn't afraid to tell you how much he dislikes playing on the red clay).
The second-round tilt with Ruusuvuori was actually an excellent matchup for him, however. Ruusuvuori tends to be erratic and is a slugging baseliner. That played perfectly into the hands of the ever-consistent Medvedev. Ruusuvuori also prefers hard courts, so the tall Russian wasn't at a disadvantage when it came to surface either.
Finally, Ruusuvuori doesn't really utilize drop shots often – two tactics that are almost a necessity to beating the rigid solidity from the baseline that Medvedev possesses.
That all changes on Monday, as he takes on a natural clay courter who hits a heavy ball, takes the ball early on his forehand wing to take time away from his opposition and can play the 20-shot rallies with Medvedev without batting an eye.
While he may not have the weapons or talent that Medvedev does, in these slow conditions he's more equipped to give him a hassle than Ruusuvuori was.
Nonetheless his odds are higher. I'll take Zapata Miralles to win a set here.
Pick: Zapata Miralles +1.5 sets (+129 via DraftKings)
Borna Coric (-190) vs Roberto Carballes Baena (+150)
5 a.m E.T.
The other match is one of the matches first on court, as Borna Coric looks to continue building on his success in Madrid this week.
It's a solid matchup for him against one of the tour's most prototypical clay-court specialists in Roberto Carballes Baena.
The Spaniard doesn't really have any weapons, as his style is more about defending, court coverage and constructing points or coaxing errors from his opponents.
Seeing as how Coric is incredibly solid and consistent from the baseline in his own right, he neutralizes the foundation of Carballes Baena's gameplan pretty well.
It also means that his normally vulnerable second serves and his forehand – which is susceptible to being rushed, leading to errors – should be under much less pressure.
Then there's the fact that Coric is more capable of playing front-foot tennis and his backhand is leaps and bounds better than his counterpart's.
This spread feels to me like the market is seeing two players that are underpowered and only gives Coric the slightest of edges.
I have Coric as the much better player, with the best shot on the court and the player that is just a bit better at nearly everything than Carballes Baena.
For me, this spread has to have him as the favorite by at least two breaks. This is too low.
Pick: Coric -2.5 games (-120 via FanDuel)
