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More round 1 action comes at us on Monday night from down under at the Australian Open.
Let's take a look at a few men's matches that are mis-priced in the market.
Find picks for Arthur Fils vs Jiri Vesely and Roman Safiullin vs Tallon Griekspoor in my latest Australian Open best bets.
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Monday Australian Open Best Bets
Arthur Fils (-1400) vs Jiri Vesely (+750)
7 p.m. ET
I hate to bet against the young French phenom in this match, but my word this price is outrageous. I'm well aware that Fils is incredibly talented, but I think we're seeing the market sleep on Vesely in the opening round.
Vesely has a pretty big, lefty game himself. His serve should generate plenty of cheap points and his plus-one power should close down many more points that his serve doesn't.
We've seen him push players at slams several times in the last few years and has stepped up and beaten Novak Djokovic as well in a match in the Middle East in recent years.
He's not shy of the big stage, but I'm still a bit concerned about a potentially long match.
The best way to approach this one for me? To back the player that is undervalued, has a ton of power and should generate service holds without having to trust him in a potentially prolonged match.
That means I'm looking to the first set over market. I'm also in on him to win a set.
Picks: Over 9.5 games 1st set (-125 via DraftKings) | Vesely +2.5 sets (+105 via PointsBet)
Roman Safiullin (-210) vs Tallon Griekspoor (+176)
7 p.m. ET
Not a big bet here, but in a match featuring two players that should play a very close match, I'll side with the underdog.
These two are both suited for quicker courts, with powerful serves and aggressive, powerful forehands. They're tough to break and neither is the best of returners. Now, Griekspoor struggles more than Safiullin, and to me that's the primary reason he's the underdog in this match. Nonetheless, it's hard for me to get to the point where Griekspoor is well under the 40% mark in terms of his implied probabilities of winning this match.
If you're going to give me a player that won several titles in quicker conditions in 2023 at a price in the neighborhood of +175 and against an opponent that may play some good tennis, but isn't exactly elite competition, I'll happily take it.
Plus, now you've got some sweat equity in what should be a fun match with plenty of firepower on display.
Pick: Griekspoor ML (+176 via FanDuel)
