It was not a fun start to the French Open for my betting picks, as Sara Bejlek was basically a no-show and Nuria Parrizas Diaz lost from a set up in my favorite play on the board for Sunday's action.
Onwards we go, and we have another pair of matchups from the women's draw that look to be providing some poor numbers to exploit.
Read on for my Monday French Open picks.
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Monday French Open Picks
Diana Shnaider (-210) vs Rebecca Marino (+165)
7 a.m. ET
We'll start with a matchup that features a distinct surface edge for the natural clay courter in Diana Shnaider, who takes on Canadian Rebecca Marino.
The lefty had an incredible run at the end of the 2022 season at some lower-level tournaments, and ended up amassing a total of 46 wins on the dirt in 2022. It was such a successful end to the year that many were perplexed when she committed to play NCAA tennis for NC State, meaning she wouldn't be managing a full-time calendar on the professional circuit.
Armed with a nasty lefty forehand that can both be hit with power and a lot of spin, the Russian is perfectly set up to exploit Marino's weaker backhand. Her ability to move the ball around the court should also allow her to exploit Marino's lack of mobility on a surface that demands one be able to move somewhat competently.
The big-serving native of British Columbia hasn't really fared well in her career. Most of her wins are against fellow hard courters or players without weapons that she can simply hit off the courts, even if they're slower.
Most importantly, she has a history of losing at least one set by margin, which is key considering I'm looking to back Shnaider by laying the games.
Pick: Shnaider -3.5 games (+100 via DraftKings)
Anna-Lena Friedsam (-170) vs Nao Hibino (+140)
10:30 a.m ET
In another fade of a hard court player, I'm happy to back Anna-Lena Friedsam to cover her spread against Nao Hibino.
While Friedsam is still more of an indoor player in my mind than a clay courter in her own right, she's still shown a higher level in her career on red clay than her Japanese counterpart.
Hibino may have several wins on her resume this year, but several were on green clay, another pair were against serve-oriented women that are far better on hard courts and another few were against ITF level talent.
When one applies context to her record on clay this season, it becomes rather unimpressive.
As for Friedsame, she managed to push one of the better players in women's tennis to a third-set tiebreak when she nearly knocked off Paula Badosa. She also lost by a singular break to Anna Blinkova – another top-100 talent that has shown some decent results on this surface.
Friedsam has shown a much-improved baseline game this year on the dirt for me and with the stronger serve to fall back on, she deserves to be closer to -3.5 or -4 games than the -2.5 or -3 currently on offer in the betting markets.
Pick: Friedsam -2.5 games (-120 via DraftKings)
