We've arrived at the second week of the French Open with the fourth round coming to a close on Monday in Paris. We've got two absolute slugfests on our hands between some of the best players in the world, and I'm very excited to break them down below.
We'll be looking to back one of the favorites here who could be on his way to a much-awaited return to a Grand Slam final as well as give some credit to a trendy underdog.
Here are my Monday French Open picks for Fritz vs. Ruud and Zverev vs. Rune.
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Monday French Open Picks
Taylor Fritz (+200) vs. Casper Ruud (-250)
10 a.m. ET
Despite knowing each other's games quite well as Laver Cup participants and fellow top 15 players, these two have only met in one match, which came back at the 2022 ATP Finals. On an indoor hardcourt, it was Ruud who emerged the victor in a close clash which came down to a third-set tiebreak, and despite the change in surface here I'm still looking forward to another cracking affair.
Yes, Ruud has gone to the final here in back-to-back years and has long been a player who's at his best on clay while Fritz has struggled to gain footing on the dirt. With that said, "Claylor" may be figuring this out with an impressive 11-6 clay record last year which saw him knock off Stefanos Tsitsipas en route to a first-career semifinal in a clay-court Masters, and he followed that up with another this year in Madrid as he compiled a 10-5 record heading into Roland Garros.
Fritz has been enjoying the slightly damper conditions, and it appears that his confidence on clay is full-fledged at this point. While he can't boss with his serve the same way he can on other courts, he's hit the forehand with exquisite depth and puts a good deal of work on those shots.
The matchup to watch here is the Fritz two-handed backhand into the Ruud backhand, a trade that should be won by the American on most occasions. Fritz's backhand is one of the most reliable shots in the game, and while Ruud's improved a great deal on that wing I don't think it's good enough to win a lot of points against Fritz's.
I've got the American winning this one, so the games are an easy call.
Pick: Fritz +4.5 games (-110)
Alexander Zverev (-250) vs. Holger Rune (+200)
2:15 p.m. ET
Looking at the runs both men have made here in Paris, a lot of the attention is on Zverev's dramatic fifth-set escape against Tallon Griekspoor in the fourth round from two breaks down. However nobody's talking about Holger Rune lacking more than one convincing set during the championships.
Rune not only needed five sets to survive Flavio Cobolli, a match he could have easily lost in shocking fashion, but he was pushed hard by Jozef Kovalik last round.
Yes, this matters because it might show that Rune is struggling a bit in these victories, but it's also an issue for the young Dane due to his infamous conditioning issues. He's dealt with cramps for years and has seemed to wear down right around the fourth round in Grand Slams, and while he should overcome these in time I think you want to be betting on one of the fittest players in the world in a situation like this.
Zverev may have needed a daring escape to arrive in the fourth round, but that doesn't change the fact that he's still the most in-form player in the world on this surface. He was rocking his forehand late in that match and after the serve disappeared early in the fifth, it quickly returned to net him the victory.
I see the delta between these two as a bit wider as the oddsmakers have it, and I think in a match which should be very physical on the clay, Rune will wear down and even in the event of a four-or-five setter will likely donate a set to conserve energy.
Pick: Zverev -4.5 games (-105)
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