The first round of the US Open gets underway on Monday morning from New York, and there are many ways to find value. I'm eyeing a pair of underdogs who deserve more respect here.
Let's get into how to bet Bublik vs Thiem and Ruud vs Nava. Here are my Monday US Open picks.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing US Open matches.
Monday US Open Picks
Alexander Bublik (-170) vs Dominic Thiem (+140)
11 a.m. ET
The knock on Bublik has always been his lack of consistent mental focus. When I saw him dig deep to reach the third round of the US Open in 2019, I targeted him as a player to bet going forward in Grand Slams, but he's yet to make it back to the third round in Queens in the three years since.
Last year, in a loss to Pablo Carreno Busta, we saw Bublik look loose and careless in what was ultimately a match I thought he should have won. He folded in the fourth-set tiebreak, costing himself the win, and I think he's worth fading once again on Monday.
Bublik's had a pretty poor season with a 20-24 record, but his performance on the grass is enough to keep him firmly in the top 30 for the remainder of the season. He has very few ranking points to defend at this tournament, and with that I'm not sure he's going to have enough in the tank to take out a hungry Dominic Thiem.
While Thiem's done most of his winning on clay lately, it's important to remind folks that when he started this long, arduous comeback he was much better on hard courts than he was on clay, and the biggest win since he's been back from injury was over Tommy Paul in Vienna last fall. I think he looks much better almost a year later, and he should bring a very good level to this first-round encounter.
Thiem went to the Kitzbuhel final the last time we saw him, but Bublik enters this one on three-match losing streak with his last win coming on July 7th over Max Marterer at Wimbledon. The lack of form is what I'm most concerned with here for Bublik, and I think he falls to the former US Open champion.
Pick: Thiem ML (+140 via DraftKings)
Casper Ruud (-650) vs Emilio Nava (+450)
12:30 p.m. ET
Speaking of form, there may be no one colder in the draw than Casper Ruud. A finalist here a year ago, Ruud hasn't played nearly the same ever since. He lost to Max Purcell as a heavy favorite in Cincinnati and prior to that was bounced by Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in just his second match in Toronto.
Ruud is now 6-8 on hard courts this season and just 29-17 overall. He's had a poor season, and even in defeat he's looked very flat and out of sorts mentally. I'm putting him on upset alert in the first round here.
Emilio Nava is a very dangerous first-round draw for Ruud. He hits a massive ball, and while we've seen him tire out in best-of-five matches we've seen him come out guns blazing in each and every one. Ruud loves to face passive players considering his style of play, which is to remain consistent from the baseline before eventually getting a forehand to hit for a winner. Nava is ultra-aggressive and should take it to Ruud early before the Norwegian eventually outlasts his young opponent physically.
Nava enters this tournament playing excellent tennis, making the final of the Stanford Challenger and winning three tough qualifying matches here in Queens. He should be able to take one of the first two sets off of Ruud, at the least.
Ruud dropped five sets en route to the final here last year, and the year prior to that he was upset in the second round by Botic van de Zandschulp. While he did make the final here last year, his track record at this tournament is still awfully sketchy, and there's nothing to suggest this match will be easy.
Pick: Nava +2.5 sets (-110 via DraftKings)
