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The fourth round of Wimbledon concludes on Monday with some mouth-watering matchups, and while I think one short favorite will prevail, the other could be in some serious trouble.
Let's get into how to bet Alcaraz vs Berrettini and Dimitrov vs Rune.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing Wimbledon matches.
Monday Wimbledon Best Bets
Grigor Dimitrov (-175) vs Holger Rune (+140)
11 a.m. ET
This would seem to be another opportunity to fade the inexperienced Rune at a Grand Slam. While the 20-year-old has made the quarters at the French Open two years in a row, he also had a third-round exit at the US Open last season and first-round exits at Wimbledon and the Australian Open. Once again this year, he was taken out in the fourth round in Australia and seemed to be out of gas after his fourth-round win at the French.
There are simply too many physical question marks here with Rune to love him in this match, particularly coming off of a five-set win over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. On top of that, while he's been able to go 6-1 this grass season, his wins have really lacked quality, with the majority coming over very bad competition. I'm still not sold he is polished enough on this surface to beat someone like Grigor Dimitrov.
Dimitrov will make life uncomfortable for Rune with his low backhand slice and he should dampen most of the offense coming at him from the other side of the net. I think this should be relatively straightforward and will look to the game spread.
Pick: Dimitrov -2.5 games (-110 via DraftKings)
Carlos Alcaraz (-230) vs Matteo Berrettini (+185)
11:30 a.m. ET
All these two do is play absolute bangers. Their first meeting came two years ago on an indoor hard court in Vienna, where Alcaraz stunned Berrettini in a deciding tiebreaker. He'd get him back at the Australian Open the next season, coming out the victor in a fifth-set breaker. In Rio later that year, they once again went the distance.
There is very little between these two when it comes to offense. Their forehands are both up there as the best in the world, and while Berrettini can't match the pace off the Alcaraz forehand, he more than makes up for it with his gigantic serve. With better hands at the net and much better nerves, Berrettini is really a more refined version of the man Alcaraz just defeated, Nicolas Jarry.
In that match, Alcaraz served at just 62% and served seven double faults. That number is generous as well when you consider that Alcaraz landed 70% of his first serves in the first set and tapered off after, never hitting above 60%. This continues to be the one area of the Alcaraz game that could be considered a weakness, and it was his struggles on serve that cost him against Berrettini in Australia.
Alcaraz got away with it against Jarry, winning in four sets, but against Berrettini I think some of the errors will wind up being more costly. Berrettini isn't going to be the unforced error machine that Jarry was, and he will do much better to consolidate breaks and hold serve with a lead.
Berrettini has rarely lost on grass in his life, going 35-5 over the last four years. When he's fallen, it's taken something very special. I think Alcaraz clearly has a special level in him, but surely this won't be an easy win.
Pick: Berrettini +3.5 games (-115 via DraftKings)
