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The first round of Wimbledon gets underway on Monday morning from the All England Club, and there are umpteen ways to find value. I'm eyeing a pair of underdogs who deserve more respect here.
Let's get into how to bet Corentin Moutet vs Richard Gasquet and Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing Wimbledon matches.
Wimbledon Odds & Picks
Corentin Moutet (+125) vs Richard Gasquet (-155)
7:30 a.m. ET
The first match I'll be betting on Monday morning is an all-French affair between an eccentric youngster and a graying veteran. While it's Gasquet garnering all the respect from oddsmakers here, I think the underdog here is the play.
Let's start with the fact that Gasquet has completely fallen off in 2023 at the age of 37. The two-time Wimbledon semifinalist has maintained a high level as he's approached 40, but this season has been something of a nightmare with a 15-18 record across all levels. He was able to capture his first title in five years back in January, but since then he's won just eight tour-level matches.
Moutet is an interesting case. He's been forced to play with a one-handed backhand all season after an injury to his non-dominant hand forced him to abandon his two-hander. While that's cost him some winnable matches over the last few months, it's really helped him develop his slice backhand into something of a weapon. On grass, having a good slice is very key.
The 24-year old is a supreme talent and has been able to compete with the world's best when healthy and focused. There's no reason he should be an underdog of these proportions given Gasquet's season, and on top of that I've really loved watching compete on the court over the last two months. He is highly motivated and should win this one.
Pick: Moutet ML (+125 via DraftKings)
Tomas Martin Etcheverry (-175) vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles (+140)
10:30 a.m. ET
This is another example of the more familiar name getting far too much respect. Sure, Etcheverry had the tournament of his life at the French Open and capitalized on the hard work he's put in on clay over the last four or five years. He's a very talented tennis player, but he's proven absolutely nothing away from the dirt.
Etcheverry has played over 400 matches on clay throughout his young career, counting Challenger and ITF events. He's played just under 60 hardcourt matches, and just five grass-court matches. In those five grass court matches, he's won just once.
The Argentine simply does not deserve to be the favorite here given he's hardly left the clay. While he can hit the ball hard, he's still going to have a tough time with his footing, and he really did not look very good at all in a loss to JJ Wolf on grass last week.
Zapata Miralles is just 7-7 on grass in his own right, but he's at least diversified where he's playing tennis over the last few seasons. On top of that, he hits a much bigger ball than he gets credit for given his reputation is as a relentless backboard. He can absolutely hit through Etcheverry on this surface.
I think oddsmakers assume neither player can gain an advantage on grass in a battle of clay-courters, and therefore the bigger talent will be the favorite. I couldn't disagree any more and think this is a coin flip at worst. Zapata Miralles should win this match.
Pick: Zapata Miralles ML (+140 via FanDuel)
