As the second week hits Wimbledon, we have an incredible mix of players remaining in the men's draw. Some of the usual suspects are looking to book their spots in the Wimbledon quarterfinals, while there are also some new faces and surprise players deep into the draw on a surface that isn't traditionally their best.
We'll cover a pair of matches that touch on all of those in this article.
Here are my bets for Fritz – Zverev and Musetti – Mpetshi Perricard in my Monday Wimbledon picks.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing Wimbledon matches.
Wimbledon Odds & Wimbledon Picks
Alexander Zverev (-200) vs Taylor Fritz (+163)
10 a.m. ET
This price has come down a bit as expected on this Wimbledon fourth round clash, but it's the only bet that really stands out to me for the second week. Let me be straightforward, with the big names involved and fewer matches to price up, it's going to be more difficult to find bets this week than most.
That said, I do like Fritz in this spot. We're getting a valuation of under 40% for a player that has a game that's decently suited to grass, can hold up in backhand exchanges against one of the stronger backhands in men's tennis and who has been serving and playing some great tennis.
I'm really anxious to see how Fritz approaches this match from a tactical perspective, because if he can keep the ball low against the taller Zverev who has had his fair share of problems on grass courts with the low bounce in the past, he's a very live underdog.
I wouldn't expect either guy to run away with it and a serve-centric match isn't something I'd complain about. More tiebreaks and coin flip type sets are our friend if we have a ticket in the +160 range.
There's also the fact that Zverev has a potential knee issue to contend with. Last we heard from him in his press conference, he sounded like he'd be ready to go, but the results still weren't back on what is being viewed as a hyperextension. It's really tough to gauge just how much that will impact him, so I don't want to rely on that too heavily in a handicap, but if there is a lingering issue or it does flare up during the match, that also favors the American.
Pick: Fritz ML (+163 via bet365)
Lorenzo Muestti (-120) vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (-105)
6 a.m. ET
This may not be as glamorous of a match (thus the first on court billing) as the one above, but I do think it's one of the only matches worth betting in the round of 16.
I am still not a believer in Musetti on grass, despite a solid grass swing for him in 2024. His serve is certainly one of the more vulnerable ones remaining in the draw and that doesn't bode well against the big Frenchman, who has one of the biggest serves on tour.
In fact, Mpetshi Perricard – who entered the main draw as a lucky loser – has only been broken once in 62 service games this week (that's a hold percentage of roughly 98.5%). For that reason, I'd expect most of the pressure in service games to come when the Italian is at the service line.
Some may want to pick on Mpetshi Perricard's one handed backhand and less-than-stellar play from the baseline, but I think it's tough to rely on that when it's so incredibly difficult to even get points started on return against him. You're almost left to be reliant on him spraying a few errors and hoping they're bunched up in one service game.
Musetti came through the weakest section of the draw to arrive at this point and I'm just not ready to make him -110 against someone that has proven to be nearly unbreakable.
Pick: Mpetshi Perricard ML (-105 via DraftKings)
