We're going to set the final two quarterfinals on Monday as some of the top players remaining in the draw gear up to contest some difficult fourth-round matches.
I'll be looking to back one favorite who should comfortably move on behind his mastery of the surface, and I'll look to successfully fade Novak Djokovic again — this time in braver fashion.
Here are my Wimbledon predictions for Fils – De Minaur and Rune – Djokovic.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing Wimbledon matches.
Wimbledon Odds & Wimbledon Predictions
Arthur Fils (+370) vs. Alex De Minaur (-500)
8 a.m. ET
It's been a successful Wimbledon thus far for Arthur Fils, who took a positive 2023 grass-court season and some wins leading up to Wimbledon and built off it, beating some quality opposition en route to the fourth round.
However, the test will get very difficult against one of the very best in the world in Alex De Minaur. The World No. 9 cracked the top-10 earlier this season for the first time in his career thanks to some great play on hardcourts in late 2023 and early 2024, and it seems after an expected slow clay season we've forgotten how good this man was months ago.
De Minaur introduced a backhand slice down the line to great effect in Australia, a shot which is only more lethal on fast grass courts. He was already an excellent player on this surface, entering the year with four straight winning seasons, because he can not only keep the ball low and flat but play all-world defense which makes it quicker than usual to hit through and finish rallies on a slick court.
Fils isn't a player who's overpowering from the back of the court, and he's also a guy who wears down considerably when he's forced into long rallies. I expect his shakiness from the back of the court to show in a big way here against the defense of De Minaur, and the progressive mental fatigue should also be apparent against an utterly frustrating opponent to play.
I like De Minaur to win rather comfortably.
Pick: De Minaur -5.5 games (-115 via DraftKings)
Holger Rune (+245) vs. Novak Djokovic (-315)
12:30 p.m. ET
It's important to say this as many times as I can: Novak Djokovic is a 37-year-old who underwent knee surgery just four weeks ago. I realize the man is the greatest player to ever walk on a tennis court, and has frequently overcome physical obstacles to remain dominant, but I simply don't think we can expect to see the same Djokovic until he's had time to fully heal.
Whether or not the injury was significant, the fact remains that this man went under the knife and hasn't appeared to be quite as quick as we've seen in the past. Without his movement, too, it's incredibly difficult to survive on grass when your opponent is rocketing balls through the court.
He's faced a little of that over the past week with big-hitting Alexei Popyrin pushing him to a fourth-set tiebreak, and British wild-card Jacob Fearnley negotiated a set off Djokovic before him and again seemed to have the Serb in a slightly compromised position.
The difference here is that Rune will remain relentless, not falling victim to the considerable drop in level that those two experienced in the match, and he also won't fear Djokovic considering he's beaten him on two big stages — in the 2022 Paris Masters final and last year's ATP Finals.
Rune came out flying on grass last year with seven wins in nine matches and he's looked the part of a dark horse so far this week. I expect him to continue bringing his best against Djokovic, ripping winners left and right, and I'm not quite sure Djokovic will hold up to all the running around.
Heading into the championships, the World No. 2 seemed primed for an upset at some point, and there's been no signs that he's close to the dominant level on grass we saw when he won Wimbledon two years ago. This is the time to act.
Pick: Rune ML (+245 via FanDuel)
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