By the end of Labor Day, we will have our final four women's quarterfinalists at the 2019 US Open. In order to better prepare you for your Monday tennis bets, check out our betting previews for each of the four matches below, starting with Donna Vekic (-110) vs. Julia Goerges at 11 a.m. ET.
Donna Vekic (-110) vs. Julia Goerges (+100)
Monday, 11 a.m. ET
My line: Vekic -135
Vekic, who's slowly risen through the ranks since last summer, currently sits at No. 22 in the world. And the Croat is poised to continue that climb.
On the other hand, after winning her opening tournament of 2019 in Auckland, Goerges has had a fairly disappointing year.
Both players looked impressive in the first week. Vekic hasn't faced the stiffest competition but did secure a quality second-round win against the always-dangerous Kaia Kanepi. Goerges has the best win between the two against No. 7 seed Kiki Bertens in blowout fashion.
The biggest storyline for Goerges in this tournament so far has been the improvement of her second serve. The German has won more than 55% of second-serve points in all three matches, compared to a 47.6% average for the year. If she can maintain that clip, she can beat anyone on Tour since her first serve is one of the best in women's tennis.
Vekic has advanced with an aggressive brand of tennis. She's hitting winners and finishing off points early. Her serve hasn't been that great, making only 55% of first serves in the tournament. If she can just up that percentage to around 60%, she can also compete with anybody.
Vekic has the power and current form to exploit Goerges' second serve, which I still don't fully trust. Despite losing all three prior meetings (two on indoor-hard and one on grass), I think Vekic finds a way.
Naomi Osaka (-210) vs. Belinda Bencic (+180)
Monday, 12 p.m. ET
My line: Osaka -225
Monday's main event on the women’s side features the 2018 US Open champ and the talented 22-year-old Swiss.
These two have actually already met twice this year with Bencic taking both matches — one on clay and the other on the hard courts of Indian Wells. Overall, Bencic leads their head-to-head history 3-1, but Osaka was in poor form for both clashes this year; she now appears to be in championship form.
Bencic didn't have a great summer with a 2-2 record in US Open tune-up events. She also dealt with a foot issue in Cincinnati, but her movement hasn't seem hampered so far in New York. Plus, she'll also benefit from having the day off on Saturday after her third-round opponent, Anett Kontaveit, withdrew from the tournament pre-match.
If both players bring their A-games, this will be a delight to watch. Osaka has the perfect blend of power and touch, while Bencic is supreme at constructing points and shot-making.
On paper, Osaka should have a major serving advantage with her powerful serve. However, Bencic has read Osaka’s first serve well in the past. In Indian Wells, Osaka won only 53.8% of her first-serve points. Bencic should have opportunities to break.
That said, Osaka should have plenty of chances of her own. Osaka will put much more pressure on Bencic's weak second serve than Mandy Minella or Alize Cornet could. It’s paramount Bencic puts pressure on Osaka with her first serve. If she's missing her first serve, Osaka's power could take over this match.
Bencic hasn’t beat anyone of note in NYC yet, but I'm still riding out her quarter and tournament futures. In regards to this particular match, the line looks spot on.
Elise Mertens (-325) vs. Kristie Ahn (+275)
Monday, 2:30 p.m. ET
My line: Mertens -330
Townsend isn't the only American who made a surprise run to the second round, as Kristie Ahn has also had a career-best run at this year's US Open. She’s yet to drop a set in three relatively routine wins. She will, however, take a big step up in competition against Belgian Elise Mertens.
Mertens has taken a liking to the slower hard courts and has been near perfect so far, albeit against very light competition for a Grand Slam. Still, she won over 50% of return points in all three victories. That impressive stat could hint at trouble for Ahn, who doesn't have a very strong serve.
While Ahn has been steady so far, she benefited from poor, inconsistent play by her opponents. Anna Kalinskaya hit 30 unforced errors and Jelena Ostapenko hit 45.
Mertens will not be as aggressive as Kalinskaya or Ostapenko but will be far more consistent, forcing Ahn to hit winners. Ahn will not be gifted this match.
Despite the talent gap, these two have split four career meetings, all of which came on outdoor hard courts. Three of those four came in 2016, when Mertens wasn't nearly the same caliber player, but Ahn also thrashed her 6-3 6-3 earlier this summer in San Jose.
Still, I think Mertens is playing too well at the moment and should advance to her first US Open quarterfinal.
Bianca Andreescu (-425) vs. Taylor Townsend (+355)
Monday, 9 p.m. ET
My line: Andreescu -415
Andreescu has continued her splendid 2019 hard-court form by making the second week of the US Open without dropping a set. One of the Tour's most intense competitors, Andreescu faces a unique test on Monday against the volley magician Taylor Townsend.
In her last two matches, Townsend has come to the net on 55% of points, winning 62% of them. No other player on Tour comes to the net that frequently.
Andreescu may struggle a bit with the American's unfamiliar style, but she's ultimately much more talented with plenty of shots in her arsenal. Her passing shots should offer plenty of topspin to frustrate Townsend at the net.
In Townsend’s previous match, Sorana Cirstea applied consistent pressure on Townsend’s serve. Considering Andreescu has an even better ground stroke, you can expect more of the same during Townsend's service games.
If Townsend can find success early in the match at the net, it could test the Canadian's nerve. However, Andreescu's attitude and demeanor have been A+ all season after struggling with keeping her emotions in check at times last year.
Andreescu is clearly the superior player and rightfully favored, but Townsend has the talent and unique game to pull off the upset. I still expect Andreescu to move on, but this could be tighter than the line suggests.
